- SWFX traders are 58.20% bearish
- 58% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to BUY
- Notable support near 1,300.00
- Upcoming Events: US Non-farm Employment Change, Preliminary GDP q/q
Yesterday the pair made a sharp turn around due to release of information of the US CB Consumer Confidence. As a result, today the buck is expected to continue to appreciate against the gold. The fall is expected to continue at least until a release of the new US data set later this day.
The Conference Board report revealed that its Consumer Confidence Index increased to the strongest level in five months of 122.9 in August, following a downwardly revised 120.0 reading in the prior month.
Data suggested that households' sentiment was increasingly positive about the US economic growth, further increase in home prices and healthy labour market, which are likely to sustain an expansion in consumer spending.
Preliminary GDP q/q in focus
Today is a quite unique day, as traders will have a chance to observe a double release of the US macroeconomic data with the 15 minutes time gap. So, the first one will be an announced an information on the Non-farm Employment Change at 12:15 GMT and then, most importantly, an information on the Preliminary GDP for the Q2.
Both events will be covered by the Dukascopy Research Team.
XAU/USD falls on US fundamentals
Yesterday the buck quite expectedly appreciated against the gold. However, this movement was rather based on reaction from release of data on the US CB Consumer Confidence than some technical factors. Similarly to the Euro, the fall continued until the pair encountered a support set up by the 55-hour SMA and the weekly R2 at 1,305.61.
In order to continue the surge, the yellow metal now has to cross a combined resistance level formed by the weekly R3 and the monthly R2. Most probably, this attempt will fail and the pair will end the day in the decline. The main reason behind such assumption is a double release of the US macroeconomic data, among which one of them is Preliminary GDP. Moreover, both data sets are expected to show some positive developments.
Hourly Chart
At the moment, the pair is fluctuating right in the middle of the long term ascending channel. From this point of view, the gold should continue to gain value against the buck to be able to reach the pattern's northern boundary. On the other hand, this scenario might be distorted after the number of successful US macroeconomic data releases.To put differently, Monday's advance might represent a certain peak after which the pair enter into a monthly downfall with the subsequent transformation of the channel into a wedge pattern.
Daily Chart
Markets sentiment remains bearish
Traders of Dukascopy are clearly bearish, as 58.20% of open positions are short. Accordingly, the same percentage of pending commands is to buy the gold.
OANDA Gold traders remain practically neutral, as open positions are 53.25% bullish. In addition, SAXO bank traders also remain close to being neutral, as 51.60% of open positions are short.