By the middle of Monday's London trading session Gold had dropped down to 1,281.50. The Metal plummeted down to the support of the 55-hour SMA and the 1,280.00 level.
However, the previous forecast of a surge on Friday was correct, as the rate surged throuhgout Friday and reached the 1,288.00 level before the decline started on Monday morning.
During this week there are various macroeconomic data releases that will impact currency exchange rates. Moreover, there will be a Federal Funds Rate announcement.
On Tuesday, the Canadian GDP is expected to cause a significant impact on the CAD pairs at 12:30 GMT.
During Wednesday's trading session there will be two events to watch. First will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which will be covered this week for one reason. To once more show that this data release is not significant enough to be on economic calendars, as it causes no increases of volatility.
On the other hand, the opposite might be revealed during the analysis.
On the same day note that the most important event of the month will take place. At 18:00 GMT the US Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement will be published. The US Federal Reserve will reveal the future of the US Dollar.
On Thursday, the Bank of England announced their monetary policy data and information at 11:00 GMT. Moreover, the Governor of the bank will speak at 11:30 at a press conference.
On Friday, the US Employment data sets will be published at 12:30 GMT. This event is considered the second most important release for the USD. However, due to three data sets having individual impact on the USD the range of the volatility increase is wide during the data release.
Meanwhile, check out the previous data release covers and economic calendar analysis on the Dukascopy Webinars YouTube channel.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
The price for gold reached the psychological level at 1,288.00 and dropped to trend line located at the 1.281.58.
The XAU/USD rate is supported by the 55-hour SMA at 1,281.00, thus, it is likely, that the rate reverses north in the nearest future. It is expected, that gold could try to surpass the given psychological level.
However, if the given support does not hold, it is likely, that the price for gold continues to decline. However, it is unlikely, that the rate could slump lower than 1,278.00 mark due to the support formed by the 100 and 200-hour SMAs.
Hourly Chart
As apparent on the cart, the exchange rate is still supported by the monthly S1 at the 1,274.13 mark.It is unlikely, that the price for gold could jump higher than 1,292.00 due to the resistance of the 100-day SMA and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level.
Daily Chart
Traders go short
On the Swiss Foreign Exchange, 63% of open position volume was in short positions.
Meanwhile, the trader set up pending orders in the 1000-base point range around the metal's current price were balanced 50 vs 50.