After reaching above 1,300.00 gold is declining. If the metal passes the support of a pivot point at 1,295.13, it should decline down to a technical level cluster near 1,292.00.
There the metal would meet hourly simple moving averages and a Fibonacci retracement level.
This week will be unusual. The majority of the notable macroeconomic events will take place at the start of the week.
Namely, on Monday, the US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are set to be released at 12:30 GMT. This event might cause a reaction of up to 20 base points.
On Tuesday, the day will start with the UK GDP and Manufacturing Production data release at 09:30 GMT.
Afterwards, at 12:30 GMT the US Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer Price Index will be published.
The week's important events will end already on Wednesday. At 12:30 GMT the US Durable Goods Orders and the US Producers Price Index will be released.
For more information watch the weekly calendar analysis stream on our YouTube channel.
XAU/USD short term forecast
During Friday's trading session, the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level helped the yellow metal to break the resistance of the monthly S1 to end the trading session at the 1,296.81 mark. Note, the chart was fully reviewed to make some corrections to the chart!
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the 200-hour simple moving average will retrace gold to pass the support level of the monthly S1 at 1,295.12 mark.
On the other hand, today's US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data release at 12:30 GMT could push the US Dollar to appreciate against gold to break through the 200-hour SMA to end the trading session at the 1,300.00 level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart it can be seen that the rate is consolidating its decline after falling from the 1,340.00 level, which was touched in February.Meanwhile, the 55-day SMA had become part of the resistance cluster near 1,300.00.
At the same time, below the monthly S2, at 1,268.00, the 100-day simple moving average was providing support.
Daily Chart
Traders ride the downwards move
On Monday, 59% of all the open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was shorting the metal.
Meanwhile, the trader set up pending orders in a 1000 base point range around the metal's current price reveal additional information.
Namely, trader pending orders were mostly set to buy the commodity, as 55% of orders were set to buy.