- SWFX market sentiment is 73% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to sell in 57% of cases
- Gold prices fluctuate near 1,245.00
The recent surge failed to pass the 1,250.00 level. It retreated back down to the technical levels near the 1,240 level. On Wednesday, the commodity price fluctuated in the range between 1,241.00 and 1,246.00.
Latest Fundamental Event
The oil price has appreciated after the US Crude Oil Inventories data release last Thursday at 15:30 GMT. The one-minute candle gained 48 pips, or 0.94% right after the data release. In the next minutes, the rate was trading at the 51.00 level against the US Dollar.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of negative 7.3M, compare to forecasted negative 1.3M.
The Energy Information Administration commented, "U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.2 million barrels per day last week, down by 943,000 barrels per day from the previous week."
US CPI incoming at 13:30 GMT
Before watching any data release that usually impacts the Forex Markets, note that the Brexit fundamentals are overshadowing all data releases. Namely, data causes no reaction in the currency rates during this month.On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index change will be published at 13:30 GMT. The event is expected to cause around 20 pip reaction on the EUR/USD.
Note that on Wednesday the biggest move that can be caught will occur on the oil price benchmarks. Namely, at 15:30 GMT the US Crude Oil Inventories data release will cause a sudden move of more than one percent.
On Thursday, the attention will be taken by central bank rate announcements. Namely, at 08:30 GMT the Swiss National Bank will publish their rate and at 12:45 the ECB will publish their interest rate.
The last day of the week will have two notable data releases. At 09:00 GMT the European Manufacturing and Services PMI's created by Markit will be published.
Afterwards, the US Retail Sales data sets will be out at 13:30 GMT. The event might cause a 20 pip bounce.
All of the above mentioned data releases will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics. The events can be watched either on the bank's webinar platform or on our YouTube channel.
XAU/USD short term forecast
During Tuesday's trading session, the yellow metal was supported by the monthly R1 at 1,241.40 mark to break the resistance of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level to trade at the 1,246.36 mark. During Wednesday's morning hours, the yellow metal was supported by the 100-hour SMA to trade at the 1,244.56 mark.
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the yellow metal will keep trading sideways to stay at the 1241.00 level due to the resistance levels of the 55-hour simple moving average and the 38.20% Fibo at the 1,245.07 mark.
On the other side, the gold could depreciate against the US Dollar during today's US CPI data release at 13:30 GMT to push the gold to trade at the 1,248.00 level.
Hourly Chart
Look at the medium term ascending pattern. It could guide the metal up to the 1,260 levels.Although, the surge will be slowed down by the resistance of the 200-day simple moving average, which was approaching the metal's price. Most likely the rate will meet the SMA near the 1,255.00 level.
Daily Chart
Long sentiment remains intact
Since Tuesday, 73% of traders continued to be long on the metal. In general, the holders were still holding and some short term traders had open long positions.
Meanwhile, trader pending orders in the 1000-base point range were set to buy in 66% of cases on Tuesday. On Wednesday those orders were gone, as 56% of trader orders in the just named range were set to sell.
It can be assumed that stop losses of the long positions are close by. Most likely just below the 1,240.00 level.