The rate reached the targeted 105.12 level, where the weekly S2 simple pivot point is located at. On Wednesday, the rate retraced back up and found resistance at 105.60.
By the middle of Wednesday's GMT trading, it was expected that the rate would be pushed down by the 55-hour SMA into another test of the weekly pivot point's support.
Economic Calendar
Despite the week having high impact events on the calendar, Dukascopy Analytics do not expect notable macroeconomic data caused moves.
First of all, note that the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday will not have a rate announcement and a statement. The Meeting Minutes on their own were excluded from the historical data analysis after for a half-year period it caused only four pip moves on the EUR/USD. Equivalent minor moves occurred on other pairs.
On Thursday, the weekly US Unemployment Claims are set to be published at 12:30 GMT. The event has caused minor moves throughout July.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases.
USD/JPY short-term daily review
In the near term future, the rate was expected to consolidate until the resistance of the 55-hour simple moving average approaches it from above. The SMA was expected to push the rate down to the weekly S2 at 105.12 and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at 105.03.If the support levels fail to keep the rate up, the pair should decline to the weekly S3 simple pivot point at 104.52.
On the other hand, the 55-hour SMA might fail at pushing the pair down. In this case scenario, the rate would first test the resistance of the 105.60 level and afterwards the weekly S1 at 105.87.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the rate has bounced off the resistance of the 55 and 100-day simple moving averages. Note that these SMAs also kept the rate down in late June and July.
Daily chart
On Tuesday, traders of the Swiss Foreign Exchange were bearish, as 61% of all open position volume was short.
On Wednesday, the sentiment was 57% short.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were 53% to buy.
Previously, the orders were 70% to buy. It appears that traders had closed short positions and taken some of the profits.