- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- 51% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 59% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: US CB Consumer Confidence
The currency pair is continuing to surge, using an upside momentum created by the Jackson Hole Symposium last Friday. Today, the pair is expected to finally reach the 1.2000 mark even though the further advance is doubtful, as the road upstairs is blocked by the monthly R1 at 1.2021.
The European Central Bank published its monthly report showing the total change in M3 Money Supply as well as in private loans, which caused a modest fall in the EUR/USD exchange rate. A decrease was initially offset, suggesting a stronger bullish sentiment for the Euro, which held the pair above the 1.1930 level in the early Monday's session.
The ECB released its monthly figures on the amount of money in circulation. According to the Central Bank's report, the M3 Money Supply dropped 4.5% on an annual basis over the course of July, following the prior month's 5.0% and missing forecasts for a decline of 4.9%. In addition, private lending rose 2.6%, matching the previous month's pace, providing an additional bullish signal for the future of the EU economy.
Consumer confidence in focus
Economic calendar shows that today there will be only one event that is worth to watch. Namely, another regular release of information on the US CB Consumer Confidence. This time, the index is expected to fall from 121.1 to 120.9. The data release is scheduled at 14:00 GMT and will be covered by the Dukascopy Research Team.
EUR/USD heads towards 1.2000
The common European currency is continuing to advance against the US Dollar, using an upside momentum that was provided by the Jackson Hole Symposium.
In result of the previous trading session, the currency rate has entered into a small ascending channel, which is expected to help the pair to surge to the 1.2000 level. Afterwards, a rebound might happen, as the further road is secured not only by the weekly R1, but also by the monthly R1 at 1.2021. The opposite side, in contrast, is protected only by the 55-hour SMA.
However, there is a need to take into account an impact on the value of buck after release of information on the US CB Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, which is expected to plunge to 120.9, compared to the 121.1 last month.
Hourly Chart
Over the last two days the Euro gained 1.54% in value against the US Dollar. From a daily chart it does not seems that a major rebound will occur in the nearest future even if the pair will fail today to break through the monthly R1 at the 1.2021 level. These latest development indicate the pair is continuing to soar in another vertical ascending channel, which is expected block any attempts to sneak to the bottom.
Daily Chart
Markets are bearish on the pair
The SWFX trader open positions are 61% short. Accordingly, the outlook for the Euro is 63% bearish, while for the Dollar 59% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain largely bearish, as 66.30% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients are slightly changing their opinion, as 64.85% of traders are short, compared to 63.48% previously.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility