- Traders are bearish with 57% short positions (-1%)
- 55% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Strong support cluster near 1.2380
- Upcoming events: US Final GDP q/q, FOMC Member Bostic to speak
A reversal from a down-trend near the March high of 1.2467 could point to a possible decline during the following sessions.
The Greenback weakened against the Euro, following the US CB consumer confidence report released on Tuesday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained five pips, or 0.04%, in the first five minutes after the release, to continue fluctuating in the 1.2407 area.
The Conference Board revealed weaker consumer confidence, but that was not enough to cause a significant move in the observed currency pair. The United States CB reporteda positive result of 127.7 points, still below expectations, following a downwardly revised data in the previous period. March's figure reflected the fewer amount of responses showing expectations for higher incomes, better business conditions and more available positions in the following six months.
Traders focused on US Final GDP
The main attention in this session is put on the US final gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2017. The data is set to be released at 1230GMT. Analysts forecast an expansion of 2.7% during the given period which is a 0.2% increase from the third quarter.
Meanwhile, one speech is likewise scheduled for today. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic is due to speak at the Atlanta Society of Finance and Investment Professionals luncheon at 1600GMT.
EUR/USD moves along 55-hour SMA
Monday's climb of EUR/USD was reversed yesterday, as the market responded negatively to ECB officials who stressed the importance of patience when removing the stimulus. As a result, the Euro reversed from its six-week high of 1.2468 and plunged 79 pips within a couple of hours.This fall was stopped by the 55-hour SMA which remained the guiding force for the pair in the Asian session, as well. Some bullish pressure was likewise added by missed confidence estimates in the US.
The 1.2385 mark has previously managed to form strong resistance/support, thus it is unlikely that 1.2380, reinforced by the 100-hour SMA, is breached during the first part of the day.
The upside potential is up to the weekly R2 at 1.2480. Volatility is likely to be introduced by the US Final GDP to be released at 1230GMT.
Hourly Chart
EUR/JPY has been trading sideways since early March, as the strong support of the 55-day SMA has not allowed the pair to move below the 1.22 mark.
The Euro might still push slightly higher towards the weekly R1 and the upper boundary of the junior channel this week. However, the general direction should nevertheless remain south to eventually breach the senior channel and test the 100-day SMA and the monthly S1 at 1.2070.
Daily Chart
Sentiment strongly bearish
The number of short positions of EUR/USD has decreased by one percentage point to 57%.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 63% bearish and the US Dollar is 56% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders remains at 61% short positions today. Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 62% short positions (+1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility