- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bearish (-1%)
- 66% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Significant resistance near 1.2375
- Upcoming events: US Average Hourly Earnings m/m, US Non-Farm Employment Change, US Unemployment Rate
The Greenback rose against its European counterpart following the release of the ADP report on non-farm payrolls for February. The EUR/USD pair lost 12 base points, or 0.10%, reaching the 1.2405 level, to be seen returning back to the 1.2415 area later on.
The US private sector created 235K jobs in the reported month, expanding at a slightly slower pace than in January. At the same time, US non-farm employment change number still surpassed the February's forecast. Ahu Yildirmaz, the Vice President and Co-head of the ADP Research Institute, said that the US labor market is keeping its growth rate uninterrupted and that persistent gains have been seen in industries related to leisure, hospitality and retail.
US employment data
The only noteworthy set of fundamentals scheduled for today is the US employment data released at 1330GMT, namely, the Average Hourly Earnings, the Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate for the previous month.
EUR/USD quiet after fundamentals
The Euro was trading sideways during the first part of Thursday. A significant volatility was introduced by the ECB mid-session. The Euro initialy strengthened against its American counterpart following the release of the bank's written statement, but plunged 100 pips within a couple of hours in response to Draghi's more cautious tone during the press conference.The rate once again normalised later in the evening and early today, as a fall below the 1.2340 mark was restricted by the 200-hour SMA and the monthly PP.
Technical indicators being located in the strongly bearish area suggest that the pair should be tended north in this session, thus approaching a resistance cluster formed by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs circa 1.2380. Meanwhile, the rate should not exceed the 38.20% Fibo at 1.2235.
Hourly Chart
During the second part of last week, the Euro has bounced off the 55-day SMA and is moving closer to the 1.24 area. However, the general trend does show that the pair is likely to depreciate in the medium term, suggesting that the current long-term channel could be breached to the downside circa 1.2170. Technical indicators on the daily time-frame are likewise supportive of the bearish scenario.
Daily Chart
Traders are bearish
The number of short positions of the EUR/USD exchange rate is 59% in this session (-1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 66% bearish and the US Dollar is 58% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders remains at 59% short positions for the second consecutive session. Meanwhile, Saxo Bank clients have diminished their short positions by two percentage points to 62%.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility