- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bearish
- 54% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to SELL
- 52% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: German Buba President Weidmann Speaks, US Building Permits and Housing Starts
Previous trading session the currency rate expectedly spent in a limbo between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Today this horizontal movement is expected to continue. However, a release of the US housing data might create an impulse necessary for a decisive breakout.
The Greenback fell against the European single currency on encouraging US inflation and retail sales reports. The EUR/USD currency pair rose 20 base points or 0.17% to the 1.1858 mark, but lost the gains initially to return in the area below the 1.1800 level.
The Labour Department revealed that the US consumer inflation eased to 0.1% from 0.5% in October, while its core figure appreciated to 0.2% in the same period. Relatively strong readings pointed to the end of disinflationary trend, which worried the Fed the most. The report also showed a little slowdown in retail sales growth pace, though stronger consumers spending, including higher real wages and job gains are expected to encourage retailing in the next months.
US housing
Starting from 13:30 GMT the US Census Bureau will make an update on the number of issued building permits as well as housing starts. Although in many economic calendars this release is marked as important, but in reality it rarely causes some notable volatility in the markets.
EUR/USD fluctuates between 38.2% and 50% retracement levels
In line with expectations, the currency exchange rate failed to slip below combined support formed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the weekly R2 as well as to climb above combined resistance set up by the 50% retracement level and the monthly R1. It seems that the pair will continue moving undecidedly due to additional pressure exercised by the rising 55-hour SMA from one side and the weekly R3 from the opposite side. There is a good chance that the exchange rate will make a decisive breakout during one of today's fundamental events, such as the US housing data release. In the meantime, there is a need to remember that traders' outlook for the Euro remains predominantly bearish so as the aggregate market sentiment, which is 67% bearish.
Hourly Chart
On daily chart it is clearly seen that bulls are relentlessly trying to push the currency pair through combined resistance formed by the 55-day SMA together with the monthly R1 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. As it was mentioned before, unless it receives a proper impulse, these attempts are unlikely to bring a desired result.
Daily Chart
Traders stay bearish
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment slightly increased, as 57% of open positions are short now.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 64% bearish and the Dollar is 52% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 63% (-2%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are neutrally bearish on this currency pair with 58% (-3%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility