- SWFX market sentiment is 52% bearish
- 64% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to SELL
- 50% of traders are bearish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: ECB Draghi and Fed Yellen Speaks
The currency exchange rate continues to fluctuate between the 1.1610 and 1.1580 levels, as expected. And because of the pressure from slipping moving averages, the pair is expected to continue moving in the southern direction.
The Euro lost yesterday's gains against the Greenback, after the disappointing report on German industrial production came in. The EUR/USD exchange rate fell 10 base points to the 1.1592 mark. German industrial output dropped twice as much as anticipated in September, following a strong increase in the prior month.
The Germany's Economy Ministry stated that country's industrial production fell 1.6% for the month, though still expanded 0.8% on a quarterly basis. In addition, data revealed that solid demand from other EZ countries for capital goods such as vehicles and machines contributed to a surprise rise in September's industrial orders, suggesting the industrial output to increase in the coming months.
Draghi & Yellen speeches
There are no significant data releases scheduled for today. The only two events that might arouse some interest among traders are opening remarks that will be delivered by Draghi and Yellen at different events in Frankfurt and Washington. However, there is a little chance that they will cause any notable volatility in the markets.
EUR/USD tests 1.1580
During the previous trading session the currency rate slipped to support area near the 1.1580 mark, as expected, made a rebound and returned to the place from which it started. As the pressure from falling 55- and 100-hour SMAs hasn't gone anywhere, the pair is still projected to move in the southern direction towards the weekly S1 located at the 1.1572 level. There is also a need to take into account an additional barrier formed by the slope that is moving along the falling 200-hour SMA. Moreover, the market continues to be dominated by bears, as the number of traders with bullish sentiment reaches only 40% on average. Even if the Euro makes an attempt to surge amid an impulse from Draghi speech in Frankfurt, this recovery is expected to have a limited effect due to additional resistance set up by the weekly PP at 1.1631.
Hourly Chart
Current fluctuations of the rate are confirming an assumption about strength of the slope that consists of two highs formed on October 25 and November 2. In other words, it represents one of the barriers that do not allow the Euro to start recovering against the Dollar. Unless the pair receives an upside momentum from some fundamental event, the most probably will continue to move to the bottom, in accordance with the 60% bearish market sentiment.
Daily Chart
Traders remain bearish
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment slightly decreased, as 52% of open positions are short now.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 60% bearish and the Dollar is 50% bearish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 61% (-1%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are neutrally bearish on this currency pair with 51% (-2%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility