- SWFX market sentiment is 53% bullish
- 55% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 51% of traders are bearish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: US Trade Balance, Factory Orders and FOMC Member Powell's speech
Unfortunately, none of the yesterday's fundamental events caused a substantial volatility in the markets. For this reason, the pair remains in a limbo between the 200-hour SMA from the top and the 100% Fibonacci retracement level from the bottom. In this sense, the key question remains whether a recent rebound signified beginning of a new uptrend or the pair is going to continue to move in the southern direction, in accordance with the current medium-term downtrend.
The US Dollar strengthened against the Euro in the wake of US data release on Wednesday. The EUR/USD currency pair fell 0.15% or 17 pips to continue the session below the 1.1770 level, additionally confirming the position amid the better-than-expected ISM report and a small reaction on EU and US officials' speeches.
The US companies slashed hiring to the lowest level in 11 months in September owing to the disruption of business activities caused by Hurricanes Irma and Harvey, according to the ADP Employment report. The private survey showed that the country's businesses added 135K jobs in September, suggesting the most of Hurricane's impact forced small retailers to cut hiring.
US Trade Balance in focus
According to economic calendar, this trading session should not be intense, as yesterday. The key macroeconomic event will happen at 12:30 GMT when the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish an update on the US Trade Balance. The released numbers will allow evaluating the effectiveness of Donald Trump's policy in this area. Another important event will start at 13:10 GMT when Governor Powell will start speaking about the Treasury Markets Practices Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
EUR/USD moves near 55-, 100-hour SMAs
In general, the pair continued to move horizontally between the 200-day SMA and the 100% Fibonacci retracement level, as expected. Unfortunately, none of the yesterday's events caused any significant volatility in the markets. From technical perspective, it seems that movement of the pair was mainly constrained by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs that helped to form a minor ascending channel, which is lying perpendicularly to larger descending channel. In the first half of the day, the rate is expected to try to break through the upper trend line of the above pattern, which is backed up by the 200-hour SMA. If a rebound from the retracement level meant the beginning of a new medium-term uptrend, then the pair should eventually bypass this resistance. Otherwise, a rebound is going to follow, in accordance with the current downtrend.
Hourly Chart
At the present moment, it is still not exactly clear whether the pair made a fully-fledged rebound from the 100% Fibonacci retracement level or not. The affirmative answer implies on formation of a new medium-term uptrend with the subsequent 1.20 target. The negative answer suggests that the rate has to make a rebound in the nearest future and continue to slip to the bottom within the current downtrend.
Daily Chart
Traders become neutral
In result of the previous trading session the bullish market sentiment increased by 2%, as 53% of open positions became long. In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 53% bearish and the Dollar is 51% bearish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 62% (0%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are also bearish on this currency pair with 59% (+2%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility