- SWFX market sentiment is 57.50% bearish
- 53% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 57.50% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: Empty Day
On Friday, the currency pair unexpectedly continued the fall after release of disappointing data about the US labour market. Even though the exchange rate formed a descending channel, it is not expected to sustain for long, as the southern side remains reliably protected by lower boundary of the long-term ascending channel.
The combination of US economic reports showing slightly weaker results caused a solid jump in EUR/USD. The Euro strengthened against the Greenback by 56 base points to reach the peak nearing the 1.1972 mark, albeit stronger bearish sentiment restored a downmove in the pair.
The Labour Department revealed that the US marked an increase of 156K new jobs over the course of August, which was below expectations, but strong enough to keep the country's economy growing at a steady pace. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in the same period. Despite moderation in the labour market, data showed nothing that could undermine the Fed's intention to start trimming its balance sheet.
Day of silence
Today traders will have another quiet Monday in terms of macroeconomic data releases. The American continent will not have announcements at all, while the European continent will can be marked only by a publication of information on the Spanish Unemployment Change at 7:00 GMT. However, it is not expected to cause any notable volatility in the markets.
EUR/USD forms symmetrical triangle
Despite that all three American employment indicators that were released on Friday did not justify experts' forecasts, the Greenback continued to appreciate against the Euro and even managed to break through the bottom trend-line of a medium-term ascending channel. Fortunately for the latter, the downside moment was not strong enough to incite the buck to try to break also through the lower boundary of the dominant ascending channel.
For this reason, the pair started new trading week precisely at the monthly PP at 1.1881 that is located in the middle of the junior symmetrical triangle. Even though the northern path is protected by a combination of the weekly PP at 1.1918 and the 100-hour SMA, the southern side still consists of a more rugged support level.
Hourly Chart
From a daily perspective, the currency pair ended last week precisely at the bottom boundary of a dominant ascending channel. For this reason, a rebound is expected to follow. However, if the pair suddenly manages to break to the bottom, this would mean the strength of the junior channel up has prevailed.
Daily Chart
Traders are bearish on the pair
The SWFX market sentiment practically did not change their opinion since Friday and contninue to be 57.50% bearish on the given currency pair. Accordingly, the outlook for the Euro is 61% bearish, while for the Dollar 57.50% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 61% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients did not change their opinion, as 61% of traders are short, compared to 61 % previously.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility