- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bearish
- 51% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 59% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: US Non-farm Employment Change, Preliminary GDP q/q
Yesterday the buck expectedly restored some of the lost positions thanks to release of the satisfying US CB Consumer Confidence data. Today, the pair is expected to continue the gradual fall towards the 100-hour SMA and the weekly PP that should coincide with a release of another data set later this day.
The EUR/USD exchange rate revealed mixed reaction on the Tuesday's release showing higher-than-expected consumer confidence in July. The Euro fell against the US Dollar by 0.12% to touch the 1.2011 level, which was overcome again in the evening session.
The Conference Board report revealed that its Consumer Confidence Index increased to the strongest level in five months of 122.9 in August, following a downwardly revised 120.0 reading in the prior month. Data suggested that households' sentiment was increasingly positive about the US economic growth, further increase in home prices and healthy labor market, which are likely to sustain an expansion in consumer spending.
All eyes on US Preliminary GDP q/q
Today will be marked by a double release of the US macroeconomic data at 12:15 and 12:30 GMT, accordingly. The first one will be a monthly update on the Non-farm Employment Change. The second one represents a greater interest, as it will give traders the first outlook about the growth rate of the American GDP in the second quarter.
Both events will be covered by the Dukascopy Research Team at webinar.
EUR/USD slips to 55-hour SMA at 1.1975
In line with expectations, the currency exchange rate has successfully crossed a combination of the weekly and monthly R1 near 1.2010 and then made a rebound. The only nuance was that a rebound happened a little bit higher, from the weekly R2 at 1.2976 and continued until the 55-hour SMA.
Today, two scenarios are likely to happen. In first, the currency pair might try to repeat previous day's advance. In second, it will manage slip to the bottom and gradually continue the fall until the 100-hour SMA.
It is quite possible that bears will play in favour of the buck in anticipation of release of data on the US Non-Farm Employment Change and Preliminary GDP later this day, which both are expected to show positive changes in the US economy.
Hourly Chart
From a daily perspective, previous trading session did not bring any signifficant changes to the general picture. The currency pair is still fluctuating in a revised long-term ascending channel. On the other hand, yesterday it became clear that the further surge will be postponed for some time.
In result of today's double data release the buck most likely will drag the pair closer to the bottom-boundary of the pattern. The breakout to the bottom seems unlikely, as the above border is also protected by the 200-hour SMA and the weekly S1 at 1.1789.
Daily Chart
Markets are bearish on the pair
The SWFX trader open positions are 59% short. Accordingly, the outlook for the Euro is 62% bearish, while for the Dollar 59% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain largely bearish, as 65% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients are slightly changing their opinion, as 64% of traders are short, compared to 64.85% previously.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility