- SWFX market sentiment is 58% bearish
- Trader pending orders 57% bullish
- Pair opened Thursday's session at 1.1517
- Upcoming Events: EUR Minimum Bid Rate; ECB Press Conference; US Unemployment Claims; US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
The Euro continued to retreat against the US Dollar on Thursday morning. It seemed that the rate was at a short term cross point. The pair is either going to make another attempt at the strong resistance levels above it, or fall down. Most likely a decline will occur, as there are no strong support levels below the rate, which could hold it. However, the second part of the day has a ECB press conference scheduled.
Consumer inflation in the Euro zone rose in line with analysts' forecasts last month, official figures revealed on Monday. Eurostat reported that its Final Consumer Price Index came in at 1.3% in June, matching the flash estimate and falling down from 1.4% registered in preceding month. Meanwhile, the so-called core inflation rate rose 1.1% on an annual basis, following May's 0.9% increase.
ECB rate and conference
The main focus during Thursday's trading session will be on the ECB Minimum Bid Rate, which is set to be published at 11:45 GMT. It is expected to remain at 0.00%. Afterwards, more volatility is likely going to be caused by the ECB press Conference at 12:30 GMT. Meanwhile, at 12:30 GMT the US Unemployment Claim and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be published. However, these data sets will be outshined by the ECB.
EUR/USD retreats as expected
The common European currency has consolidated its gains against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate had retreated down to the 1.1510 mark on Thursday morning. During the decline the pair had begun to trade in limbo around the weekly R1, which is located at the 1.1516 level. The pair was not continuing the retreat due to the fact that additional support was approaching. The 100-hour SMA was located at the 1.1499 level, and it was approaching the pair from the downside. There are two possible outcomes to the situation. However, one of them is more likely. As the pair has bounced off the resistance of a massive scale pattern, it is likely going to decline. In addition to that, below the 100-hour SMA there is an almost 50 base points large range free from any type of notable support levels.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart reveals that the upper trend line of a previously active ascending long term pattern is actually providing support to the currency pair. On Thursday it was located at the 1.1495. Most likely the support of the trend line will help the 100-hour SMA.
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment persists
The situation in the SWFX markets remains unchanged, as traders remain bearish with 58% of open positions being short, and 57% of trader set up orders are to buy the Euro.
Traders of OANDA are bearish, as 66.67% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients have decreased their bearish outlook, as 62.77% of open positions are short, compared to 67.14% on Wednesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast shows EUR/USD will trade below 1.14 in October
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between June 20 and July 20, expect, on average, that the currency exchange rate may trade near 1.14 during the third week of October. In general, 43% (-4%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.14 in the following ninety days. Meanwhile, 28% (+1%) of respondents expect to see the rate below 1.12.