In the near term future the support could fail due to the additional resistance of the 100-hour simple moving average, which by mid-day had reached the 1.2180 level.
Economic Calendar Analysis
On Thursday, at 13:30 GMT, expect the weekly US Unemployment Claims. Despite the attention this release gets, we do not recommend monitoring it closely, as the last two releases caused moves below ten base points on the EUR/USD. Namely, the rate moved less than 10 pips in ten minutes. That is in the range of normal volatility.
The week will end with the publication of the US Retail Sales and US Core Retail Sales at 13:30 GMT. In November and December, these data sets caused an increase of volatility above the average.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
Given that the exchange rate is pressured by the 55– and 100-hour moving averages near 1.2180, it is likely that some downside potential could prevail in the market. In this case the rate could try to decline below the weekly S2 at 1.2099.However, if the 1.2140 support level holds, a reversal north could occur, and the currency pair could raise to the resistance area formed by the 200-hour moving average and weekly PP in the 1.2230/1.2255 area.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, it can be observed that the 1.2140 level provided the rate with support on December 20.
Meanwhile, note that the closest by technical support on the daily candle chart is the 55-day SMA and a 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.2000.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Short sentiment decreases
On Wednesday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange trader open positions were bearish, as 58% of open position volume was in short positions.
During Thursday's trading hours, the sentiment was 55% short.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 70% to buy the pair.