On Wednesday morning, the yellow metal's price had declined and started to trade between hourly simple moving averages. Namely, between the support of the 100-hour SMA and the resistance of the 55-hour SMA.
Economic Calendar Analysis
At 12:15 on Wednesday, the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls could cause a move.
Dukascopy Analytics usually ignore this event because prior to August the EUR/USD move range was 5.5 to 8.4 pips. The early August release caused a 17.7 pip move.
On Thursday, watch the economic calendar two times during the day. At 12:30 the weekly US Unemployment Claims are set to be released. At 14:00 GMT, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI results will be published.
On Friday, both Canada and the US are set to release their monthly employment data at 12:30 GMT. Depending on the currencies that one trades, one needs to look at different data tables, as reactions to the event vary.
Click on the link below to see the historical reaction tables.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
Yesterday, the XAU/USD exchange rate reversed south from the 1,990.00 level. During today's morning, the rate was testing the support provided by the 100-hour SMA near 1,960.00.
Given that yellow metal is pressured by the 55-hour moving average near 1,970.00, it is likely that some downside potential could continue to prevail in the market.
Note that the exchange rate could gain support from the 200-hour SMA near 1,948.00. Thus, gold could trade sideways against the Greenback in the short run.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the price has retreated back below the resistance of a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,977.55.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders remain long
On Wednesday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange the sentiment was long, as of total open position volume 55% was long.
During Tuesday's trading hours, the sentiment was 57% long.
Meanwhile, in the 1000-pip range around the metal's price the orders were 89% to buy.
Previously, orders were 73% to buy.