On Monday, the yellow metal continued to trade below the 1,960.00 level. However, it could be spotted that the price could surge, as the bullion began to break the resistance of hourly simple moving averages.
Economic Calendar Analysis
As the last week of the month, the following week is expected to be a quiet one. However, there are events that should be watched in the case a sharp move occurs.
On Wednesday, at 12:30 GMT traders should watch the release of the US Durable Goods Orders data. The event is capable of causing volatility increases above average level.
On Thursday, the US Preliminary GDP and the US Unemployment claims are set to be published. Due to these events usually not being released at the same time, the past reactions need to be combined. Namely, in the case of the same direction surprise the volatility pips need to be added one to another. On the other hand, different results shown by each data set could cancel one another out.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
During previous trading session, the XAU/USD exchange rate traded sideways around the 1,930.00 level. During Monday morning, the rate was testing the 200-hour SMA near 1,952.00.
On the one hand, it is likely that yellow metal could gain support from the 55-hour SMA near 1,940.00. Thus, it is likely that some upside potential could prevail in the market.
On the other hand, the exchange rate could remain under pressure of the 100– and 200-hour SMAs, and trade downwards in the short run. In this case the price for gold could gain support from the monthly PP at 1,907.07.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, on Friday the price found support in the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,916.78. In the meantime, note that the 1,977.55 level could provide resistance.
Daily Candle Chart
Sentiment remains balanced
On Friday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange the sentiment was neutral, as of total open position volume 51% was long.
The sentiment was 52% long on Monday.
Meanwhile, in the 1000-pip range around the metal's price the orders were 75% to sell.
Orders were 91% to buy on Friday.