GBP/USD beats forecast

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

Not only did the rate reach the 1.3215 level and break it, the pair pierced the 1.3250 level on Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, the 1.3265 level provided resistance, as the pair began to consolidate its gains by trading sideways.

Economic Calendar



Despite the week having high impact events on the calendar, Dukascopy Analytics do not expect notable macroeconomic data caused moves.

First of all, note that the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday will not have a rate announcement and a statement. The Meeting Minutes on their own were excluded from the historical data analysis after for a half-year period it caused only four pip moves on the EUR/USD. Equivalent minor moves occurred on other pairs.

On Thursday, the weekly US Unemployment Claims are set to be published at 12:30 GMT. The event has caused minor moves throughout July.

Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases.

GBP/USD short-term review

In the near term future, the pair was expected to consolidate until the hourly simple moving averages catch up with it and push it up. Namely, the 55-hour SMA would be the first to reach the rate.

In the case of a surge, the rate would first test the weekly R3 simple pivot point at 1.3289 and afterwards the psychological resistance of the 1.3300 level.

On the other hand, until the SMAs catch up the rate could decline to the support of the weekly R2 at 1.3216.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the rate continues to trade in the borders of a channel up pattern, which has guided the pair since the middle of June. In theory, the pair should reach its lower trend line. It could occur by a decline or sideways trading around the 1.3100 level.

In the meantime, the rate is in the overbought zone, as it is trading far above the 55-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. This signals that the rate needs to trade sideways or retrace back down.

However, as one can observe, despite being overbought, the rate continues to surge in the borders of the pattern.

Daily chart


Short sentiment increases


On Wednesday, 66% of trader open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.

On Tuesday, 62% of volume was in short positions.

Meanwhile, in the 100-pip range around the rate the pending orders were 60% to buy the GBP/USD pair.

On Tuesday, 55% of orders were to sell.

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