On Monday, the yellow metal traded near the 1,950.00 level. In general, the commodity continued to consolidate after the recent high volatility.
However, as the rate traded sideways, it passed the resistance of the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages.
Economic Calendar Analysis
Despite the t week having high impact events on the calendar, Dukascopy Analytics do not expect notable macroeconomic data caused moves.
First of all, note that the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday will not have a rate announcement and a statement. The Meeting Minutes on their own were excluded from the historical data analysis after for a half-year period it caused only four pip moves on the EUR/USD. Equivalent minor moves occurred on other pairs.
On Thursday, the weekly US Unemployment Claims are set to be published at 12:30 GMT. The event has caused minor moves throughout July.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
Since Friday, the XAU/USD exchange rate has been trading sideways in the 1,950.00 area.
Given that yellow metal is supported by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs near 1,944.00, it is likely that the price for gold could increase in the short term. In this case the rate could face the resistance formed by the 200-hour SMA near 1,992.00.
On the other hand, it is likely that bears could prevail in the market. Note that the exchange rate could gain support from the monthly PP located at 1,907.07.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the recent high and low levels have revealed a large channel up pattern, which has been guiding the price since March.
Daily Candle Chart
Sentiment is balanced
On Friday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange the sentiment was neutral, as of total open position volume 51% was short.
On Monday, the sentiment was 50% short and 50% long.
Meanwhile, in the 1000-pip range around the metal's price the orders were 84% to buy.
Previously, the orders were 67% to buy.