Instead of reaching the 1,640.00 level the yellow metal's price found support In the 1,645.00 level. The metal traded just above this level until 06:00 GMT.
Afterwards, the rate resumed its surge and began to test the resistance of the 1,660.00 level.
Due to the fundamental changes in the markets, Dukascopy Analytics suggests to note the scheduled macroeconomic events, but avoid using historical data for guidance.
Namely, the whole world changes the money supply by announcing monetary stimulus and government expense increases. In other words, the central banks are creating more money and giving it to governments to stop the effects of the coronavirus. In effect, each announcement causes a fall of the currency that it affects.
In regards to the week up to April 10, Producers Price Index and Consumer Price Index could cause notable reactions above 20 pips. Previously, the release of these data sets did not cause an increase of exchange rate volatility.
Next week, data is bound to reveal, how the coronavirus has continued to impact the US economy.
On Wednesday, the US Retail Sales data sets are bound to be published at 12:30 GMT. Most likely they will surprise the markets with the reveal of a drop in US consumption.
On Thursday, all attention is expected to be set on the weekly US Unemployment Claims. During the last weeks this previously ignored announcement has been revealing shocking data, as during the two week period almost ten million US workers claimed unemployment benefits. The unemployment claims were previously ignored as they had stopped causing market reactions.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
The rate is expected to test one round price level after another, as it surges. The surge is expected to be pushed up by the hourly simple moving averages. On Thursday, the 55-hour SMA was located at 1,652.50 and the 100-hour SMA was at 1,641.60.
In the meantime, take into account that also round price levels are expected to provide support to any possible drop of the yellow metal's price. For example, the 1,655.00 could provide support, as it provided resistance on Wednesday.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, note that the rate is slightly overbought, as the price has left below it the daily simple moving averages. In addition, take into account that the 1,700.00 level should provide resistance just as it did in March.
Daily Chart
Gold sentiment stagnates
For a whole week, the Swiss Foreign Exchange sentiment was 55% long. Namely, 55% of open gold position volume was in long positions.
Since Monday, April 6, the sentiment had changed, as 54% of open position volume was in long positions.
On Thursday, the sentiment was once again 55% long.