During Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD currency pair surpassed the 1.1000 level.
Given that the pair is supported by the 100-hour moving average, it is likely that some upside potential could prevail in the short run.
US employment data set on focus
This week there are a couple of US data releases on the economic calendars that are shown as high impact.
On Thursday, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be published at 12:15 GMT. Although, note that this is one of the releases that should not have a high impact mark and be discussed by financial media, as it has lost its power to impact the financial markets.
Due to that reason, since October 2018 our analysts ignored this data release. Recently, due to the possibility that it might have regained its strength, data was checked. Five minutes after the data release there were moves from 5.3 to 9.7 pips on EUR/USD chart. A ten pip range is normal volatility for the EUR/USD.
On Friday, US employment data will be published. The event will have three numbers being revealed – the Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.
Due to each of the numbers impacting the rate differently by pushing the value of the USD up or down and with a different strength, the event has a wide range. Namely, since April the EUR/USD has moved from 13.3 to 48 pips due to the US labour data.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
Yesterday, the EUR/USD currency pair reversed north from the 2018/2019 low at the 1.0931 mark. During Wednesday morning, the pair surpassed the 1.1000 level.Note that the exchange rate is supported by the 100-hour moving average, currently located at 1.0998. Thus, it is likely that some upside potential could prevail. However, it is unlikely that the Euro could exceed 1.1050 against the Greenback due to the resistance formed by the 200-hour SMA and the monthly PP.
On the other hand, the bears could prevail in the market, and the pair could reverse south in the nearest future. In this case the pair could be supported by the 55-hour SMA, currently located at 1.0966.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart it can be seen that the EUR/USD exchange rate tested the support provided the weekly and monthly S1s located circa 1.0900.
The rate could test the monthly PP at 1.1069 in the nearest future.
Generally, it is unlikely that the rate could exceed the Fibonacci 61.80% retracement at 1.1203 in the medium term.
Daily chart
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Traders go short
On Wednesday, 57% of open EUR/USD position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.
Meanwhile, pending trade orders were still bearish, as 69% of orders in 100 pips range around the current rate were to sell and 31% were to sell.