On Monday morning, the EUR/USD was located just above the 1.1380 level and had no resistance up to the 1.1400 level. However, it also had no technical support that could push it up.
Meanwhile, note that the central bank caused EUR/USD has been occurring in an ascending channel pattern, which clearly shows the volatility borders of the surge.
The European Common Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the French Flash Services and Manufacturing PMIs data release on Friday at 07:15 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 19 pips or 0.17% right after the release. The Euro continued trading at the 1.1315 level against the Greenback.
Markit released the French Flash Services PMI data, which came out better-than expected of 53.1 compared with forecasted 51.6. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI data also came out better-than expected of 52.0 compared with forecast of 51.0.
Surprisingly, the Euro appreciated only 13 pips or 0.11% against the US Dollar, following the German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs data release on Friday at 07:30 GMT. The given data also beat expectations.
Minor events during the week
This week there will be some minor events that might cause notable moves, if the market forecasts are completely wrong.
The data that is noted by the financial markets as important starts on Wednesday. On that day, the US Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders will be published at 12:30 GMT.
This event since February has caused moves from 5.1 to 18.0 pips. Moreover, the 18 pip was an anomaly, as the rest of the events have caused from 5.1 to 9.0 pips.
On Thursday, the US Final GDP will be published at 12:30 GMT. This is the least important GDP of the three quarterly publications of the US GDP. Since March 2018 this event has caused moves from 7.6 pips to 26.4 pips.
The full review of all of the notable events is available in video on the Dukascopy Webinars YouTube channel.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
The EUR/USD continued to surge on Monday. The surge was caused by the US Federal Reserve signalling upcoming monetary easing while the ECB's policy remained less stimulating during the last week's central bank events.Meanwhile, note that an ascending pattern can be drawn by using the low and high levels of the recent surge. It reveals that up to now the EUR/USD climb has been occurring with a certain volatility in the borders of the observable pattern.
In general, the rate is expected to reach next for the monthly pivot point at 1.1412. Afterwards, it is expected that the rate will trade sideways below this resistance until the hourly simple moving averages approach the rate from below and push the pair higher.
On the other hand, the rate could trade sideways or decline throughout Monday, as it has not support as low as 1.1350, where the lower trend line of the pattern was located at on Monday.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the rate has reached the upper trend line of the channel up pattern, which captures the pair's movements since the start of May.
The trend line is bound to strengthen the technical resistance of the monthly R1 just above the 1.1400 level.
Meanwhile, note that the rate passed the resistance of the 200-day simple moving average on Friday. The SMA should provide support to the rate near the 1.1350 level.
Daily chart
On Monday, most open EUR/USD position volume was in short positions. Namely, 73% of open volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.
It can be explained by long traders taking profits and opening short positions in the expectations of a retracement down.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in 100-pip range around the pair were set to sell, as 62% of all orders were set to sell and 38% were to buy.
The orders most likely were set to open short position in the case of a retracement beginning.