USD/JPY experiences sharp drop

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

Just before midnight the USD/JPY dropped sharply 25 base points. However, by the middle of the day's trading session the rate had recovered back up to the 111.90 level.

Meanwhile, take into account that a decline was expected on Friday. Compared to Friday's levels the rate had declined slightly.

Latest Fundamental Event

Census Bureau released the US Core Retail Sales data that came out better-than-expected of 1.2% compared with forecast 0.7%.

According to experts, the US retail sales showed the fastest growth since late 2017. In March, sales for automobiles, petrol, furniture and clothing surged. This advance might signal that consumers tend to spend more due to the healthy job market.

Last week of the month

During this week there will be a couple of macroeconomic events to watch, avoid or trade.

First, the Canadian central bank will publish their interest rate on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT.

On Thursday, the US Durable Goods Orders data will be published at 12:30 GMT. This event can cause a move of up to 20 base points.

The data will end on Friday, as at 12:30 GMT the US Advance GDP will be published. This is the top US data set, which has the largest impact on the USD.

Meanwhile, check out previous data release covers and economic calendar analysis on the Dukascopy Webinars YouTube channel.
Click Here: YouTube Channel

USD/JPY short term daily review

Yesterday, the USD/JPY currency pair plunged to the psychological level at 111.70. However, during Tuesday's morning, the pair reversed north to the 55– and 100-hour SMAs located circa 111.90.

From a theoretical point of view, it is likely, that the exchange rate trades down within the short-term descending channel. A possible downside target is the weekly S1 located at the 111.78 mark.

It is unlikely, that the pair could breach the given channel north due to the resistance level formed by a combination of the given moving averages and the weekly PP.

Hourly Chart

On the daily chart there is no significant additional information.

It is only worth mentioning that the 200-day simple moving average was located at the 111.50 level. If the rate declines, this SMA will provide support.

Daily chart


Traders remain short

On Tuesday, the Swiss Foreign Exchange sentiment was 65% short. Namely, 65% of all open position volume on the exchange was in short positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders were almost neutral, as 51% of pending commands in the 100-pip range were set to buy.

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