- Retail sector is 63% bullish on the pair
- 66% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to sell
- Nothing on Tuesday in regards to data releases
The GBP/USD has increased its gains more than expected, as on Tuesday the pair even touched the 1.2850 mark. However, after touching the level, the currency exchange rate began to decline.
The Greenback weakened against the British Pound, following the United Kingdom Retail Sales release on Thursday at 08:30 GMT. The GBP/USD currency pair gained 20 pips, or 0.16%.
The Office for National Statistics released UK Retail Sales data that came better-than-expected at 0.7% with the forecasted of 0.2%. The actual data is good for the currency because there come more opportunities for the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.
The Office for National Statistics senior statistician, Rhian Murphy said: "Many consumers stayed away from some high street stores in July, but online sales were very strong, supported by several retailers launching promotions. Food sales remained robust as people continued to enjoy the World Cup and the sunshine."
Empty day for fundamentals
Monday's and Tuesday's economic calendars are empty. It is the third week of the month. Due to that reason it is no surprise that there are no data releases scheduled.
Meanwhile, note that on Wednesday there will be rather important data releases occurring. Namely, the Canadian Retail Sales are expected to cause almost 70 pip move on the USD/CAD. Moreover, the US Crude Oil inventories are expected to give the usual half a dollar bounce to one or the other side.
GBP/USD likely to ease today
Strong bullish sentiment was guiding the GBP/USD exchange rate on Monday. The Pound breached the monthly S2 and the weekly PP mid-session which was followed by a 0.75% surge against the Greenback. This allowed the pair to break out from the dominant four-month channel this morning.Even if the rate manages to push slightly higher during the following hours, these bullish gains are unlikely to surpass the psychological 1.29 level. The 61.80% Fibonacci retracement is also located there.
Thus, it is more likely that bears try to regain some of their lost positions in this session and thus push the Pound down to the 55– and 200-hour SMAs at 1.2750.
Hourly Chart
Once more the daily chart shows that the supposed surges of the GBP/USD are actually just short lived pauses in the borders of a large scale descending pattern. The currency exchange rate's decline is highly likely going to find short term support in the various monthly and weekly pivot point levels.
Daily chart
The Swiss trader long sentiment has decreased. 63% of open positions were long on Tuesday. Previously, 67% of open positions were long.
However, additional long positions are unlikely going to be open. Retail traders of the Swiss Foreign Exchange have set up 59% of all of their pending trade orders to sell.
Meanwhile, OANDA traders remain largely bullish, as 68% of open positions are long at the brokerage. In the meantime, traders at SAXO Bank are 61% long on the GBP/USD pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility