- SWFX market sentiment is 54% bearish
- 52% of pending orders in the 100-pip are set to BUY
- US Durable Goods Orders at 12:30 GMT
On Wednesday morning, the USD/JPY currency exchange rate had remained in the trading range of the previous trading session.The rate was squeezed in by a resistance cluster near the 110.10 mark and the support levels near 109.40.
The Census Bureau released Residential Building Permits data that came lower-than-expected with a forecast of 1.35M in May, and lower from the previous period.
A survey showed that builders are: "..increasingly concerned that tariffs placed on Canadian lumber and other imported products are hurting housing affordability."
US Durable Goods Orders at 12:30 GMT
A notable data release is set to occur in the United States. Namely, the US Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders will be published at 12:30 GMT.
Dukascopy Analytics will cover the data release on the bank's webinar platform. The data coverage will be a part of the weekly Fundamental Event analysis webinar, which will begin at 12:00 GMT.
USD/JPY returns in senior channel
The weekly S1 and the monthly PP at 109.45 provided strong support for the US Dollar during the first part of this week. The pair gained momentum mid-Tuesday and therefore breached the 55– and 100-hour SMAs. It returned back in the breached senior channel and remained trading in the 109.80/110.20 range until early today.Technical indicators show mixed signals, mainly due to the considerable resistance level located near 110.20. The rate is expected to push higher in this session, however, the 100– and 55-period (4H) and the 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP could ease the current bullish sentiment and lead the rate lower today.
If this area is breached, the Greenback should target the weekly R1 at 110.65. Conversely, a fall is unlikely to surpass the 109.45 mark.
Hourly Chart
The currency exchange rate has broken the long term ascending channel pattern, which was expected to guide the rate higher up to the 111.50 mark. The passing of the support slightly shocked the financial markets, as the passing of the support resulted in a plummeting move down to the 109.40 mark.
However, to note the largest differences from the hourly chart, one needs to first look at the daily simple moving averages. Namely, the 55-day SMA has approached from the downside and is set to supporting the previously described support cluster.
In addition, the 200-day simple moving average is strengthening the resistance cluster near the 110.10 mark.
Daily chart
On Wednesday, 54% open positions of SWFX market traders remained short. It was a large decrease compared to the 60% on Friday.
Meanwhile, trader set up orders were 51% to buy. Previously, 54% of set up orders were to buy, on Monday.
It can be deducted from these facts that Dukascopy traders took profits from their short positions during the fall. However, there are no orders set to either of the directions meaning that there is no consistent view on the near future.
OANDA traders remain bullish with 56% of open positions going long on the USD/JPY pair today.
Meanwhile, Saxo Bank traders are once more almost neutral, as 53% of open Saxo positions are long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility