© Dukascopy Bank SA
There is a high chance of a downward confirmation of the pattern, which will happen in case the December 2015 low at 8.3240 is penetrated. Such a case is statistically implied by the pattern itself, as rectangles suggest the earlier trend of the pair, which is to the downside, will continue in the future. Weakness of the US Dollar is anticipated by the weekly technical indicators. On top of that, USD/SEK seems to remain quite overbought in the SWFX market, as 70% of all open positions are bullish. A loss under 8.32 will expose the monthly S2 to higher bearish risks, followed by the monthly S3 near 8.14. Meanwhile, any recovery is expected to be contained by the cluster of resistances at 8.48/50, where moving averages merge with the monthly PP.
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