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The pattern started on 15th of March, 2012, when pair started depreciating from 84.185; at the moment pair is trading at 78.410 Pattern's support is at 77.667 and is set to intersect with pattern's resistance on 7th of December, 2012. The Stochastic indicator on 1D horizon sends a buy signal suggests an upcoming bullish rally. The SWFX market sentiment shows that currently 73% of traders hold long positions on the pair and 71% of all posted orders on the pair are buy orders. In addition, 77% of all pending orders on the pair are buy orders; USD is one of the most bought currencies across the board at the moment—66% of all orders on USD are buy orders and JPY is one of the most sold currencies across the board—71% of all cases. Long traders could focus on 20 bar SMA at 78.282, weekly pivot (PP) at 78.459, Bollinger's band/weekly pivot (R1) at 78.888, Fibonacci (23.6% of move since 15th of March) at 79.206 and weekly pivot (R2)/200 bar SMA at 79.656/785.
Technical indicators on aggregate send a sell signal on 1W time horizon suggesting that the pair will attempt to breach pattern's support again. Short traders could focus on pattern's support/weekly pivot (S1)/Bollinger's band at 79.787/678 and weekly pivot (S2)/pattern's low at 77.262/166.
Main fundamental events who might have impact on the development of the pair are FOMC Meeting Minutes on 3rd of October, Japanese Monetary Policy Statement and Overnight Call rate on 4th of October and BOJ Press Conference on 5th of October.
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