GBP/CAD shows no change in general trend

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Referring to our previous technical overview of GBP/CAD, the pair did not even come close to the 1.7476 mark to confirm a double bottom, but entered a channel down to guide its break out of the previously established triangle. Remaining still with a strong bullish vision, we are looking for a tap at the 1.6597 junior channel bottom trend-line in early October that would skew risks even further to the downside. One of the channels is bound to be broken and we lean in favour of the senior channel staying strong as it has been for almost a year already. With this being said, the 1.6597 demand area is likely to lack pressure to cut off the losses, but could induce a rally towards 1.6187 and 1.5765, respectively.  

Weekly Chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


The pair currently sits inside of a red Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart with Tenkan-sen showing that the consolidation phase is likely to be extended. While almost overlapping with Kijun-sen, Tenkan-sen managed to not cross it from above and defer a potentially bearish signal which would confirm our expectations. 

Daily Chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Reversal unlikely 

The most junior descending channel is currently guiding the rate towards its bottom trend-line at 1.6959 with the tough 1.7014/10 area being the main determinant of whether it is successful in an attempt to reach its ultimate goal. The Elliot Wave Oscillator suggests that the zone will be broken as the freshly developed third wave might extend below. A sudden approach to the lower Bollinger Band implies an oversold Pound in GBP/CAD, a claim completely denied by SWFX sentiment data which shows the pair to be heavily overbought with 70% of all traders being bulls.  

Hourly Chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


While Friday has kicked off slightly bearish with little volatility, Canadian fundamental data shook the markets just moments ago. A set of high impact figures, such as CPI, Core CPI, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales, which came out come out at 12:30 PM GMT, all caused disappointment for investors as well as experts, pushing the pair north on a negative surprise reaction. Monday is likely to bring some uncertainty over market movements as well, as Stephen Poloz, the Bank of Canada Governor will bring some news in Quebec.

Aggregate Technical Indicators
© Dukascopy Bank SA

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