EUR/USD to stay below 200-day SMA

Despite the increased volatility during the second part of the past week, none of the major levels have been breached. Accordingly, there is no change to the bearish outlook, meaning the resistance represented by the 200-day SMA should prevent rallies beyond 1.37 and instead force the currency pair towards this year's low just beneath 1.35. And while the near-term technical indicators support this view, monthly studies are still mostly bullish.

The market remains undecided with respect to EUR/USD—49% of positions are long and 51% are short. A similar situation is observed in the distribution between the buy (48%) and sell (52%) orders, which are also nearly equal in numbers.