USD/JPY to face 102.72/70

It seems that the 100-day SMA will be insufficient to stop the U.S. Dollar from falling lower. However, there is a formidable support level at 102.72/70 (consisting of the monthly PP, weekly S1 and 20-day SMA) and it should be able to restore the upward momentum. This view is also reinforced by the technical indicators, majority of which are pointing north at the moment.

There seems to be less people wishing to exploit depreciation of the buck. On the contrary, they are getting less and less convinced that the currency is able to recover. During the last five trading days the percentage of long positions, even though still substantial, declined from 75% down to 71%.