EUR/USD retains bearish bias

As long as the resistance area at 1.3645/11 remains intact, the medium-term outlook for the currency pair will stay bearish. In the short run, however, there is a possibility of a bullish run up to the rising trend-line, but it is supposed to prevent extension of any rally and send it back to the monthly S1. In the longer-term perspective EUR/USD is likely to gravitate towards the 200-day SMA at 1.3424.

Although EUR/USD has been fairly tranquil lately, market participants are getting ready to short sell the Euro against the U.S. Dollar. This is evidenced by a sharp increase in the sell orders placed near the spot—from 60% seen yesterday up to 74%. Meanwhile, the ratio between the long (42%) and short (58%) positions is the same.