"The tone of these minutes increases the risk of a later liftoff."
- JPMorgan
The number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the US declined more-than-expected in the week ended October 3, extending a run of applications near decade lows that shows dismissals remain in check. According to the Labour Department report, unemployment claims fell by 13,000 to 263,000 in the reported week, beating market estimates of 274,000 applications. Even though claims data tends to be uneven from week to week, the number of applications has generally been declining since 2009. Nevertheless, other measures of the labour market in the US suggest some cooling in recent months, as the recent NFP figures showed that employers added 142,000 jobs in September and 136,000 in August.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its most recent meeting in September, when the policymakers decided to hold off on raising the Fed Funds rate. Minutes revealed that the FOMC members are mostly worried about low inflation outlook, while they admit the US has approached the full employment situation. Despite that, the majority of them noted that they are still on track of hiking in 2015, but recent weak jobs' report may postpone the decision to the next year.
© Dukascopy Bank SA