Key highlights of the week ended September 4

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Euro zone
The ECB kept interest rates unchanged at record low in line with expectations. During his birthday conference, Mario Draghi, ECB President, said that renewed downside risks emerged to the growth and inflation outlook in recent weeks. Therefore, Draghi dropped a clear hint that the central bank could expand its QE programme, given the new downside risks, and pointing out that the asset-purchase programme is flexible, and the ECB could change the size, composition and duration of the programme. The central bank downgraded its growth outlook to 1.4% in 2015 from 1.5%, while inflation was expected to slide to negative territory in the months ahead, but due to lower oil and commodity prices rather than full-blown deflation.

Australia
The RBA kept interest rates on hold at 2% after the recent stock market turmoil as a weaker Australian Dollar and past rate cuts have a positive impact on growth. The central bank said the Australian Dollar was adjusting to the significant drops in key commodity prices. Since the August meeting, the Aussie has lost 2.5% versus the US Dollar and 1% on a trade weighted basis. Meanwhile, the price of iron ore, Australia's biggest export, has jumped 5%. At the same time, there have been signs that the Fed may postpone its widely anticipated September rate hike due to ongoing concerns about cooling China's economic growth and turbulence in global equity markets. Economists believe the longer the US central bank holds off lifting rates, the greater the chances of further easing from the RBA. Yet, most analysts expect Australia's central bank to remain on hold for a while now, with a small share expecting one more cut, and markets pricing in around 30 basis-points cut in the year ahead.

Canada
The worst expectations were confirmed as the Canadian economy slid into recession in the first half of the year for the first time since the Great Recession. Canada's economic output contracted 0.5% between April and June, following a revised downward decrease of 0.8% for the first quarter, according to Statistics Canada. However, the economy grew 0.5% on month in June, the strongest monthly reading since May 2014. The strength was seen in a number of areas of the economy, including the services sector, consumer spending and the labour market. The data comes ahead of the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision next week. The central bank has already cut its benchmark rate twice this year, from 1% in the beginning of the year to 50 basis points after the latest cut in July. The negative GDP data for the second quarter is unlikely to put additional pressure on the BoC to slash rates, as the negative growth was in line with the central bank's expectations.

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