"Swings in the Chicago PMI in the short term are heavily influenced by the flow of Boeing aircraft orders, with a lag of a few months."
- Pantheon Macroeconomics
Business activity in the Midwest region of the U.S. remains very optimistic; however, pace of expansion decreased slightly in September. The benchmark Chicago purchasing managers' index dropped to 60.5 points, down from 64.3 points in August. Economists estimated the indicator at 62 points' mark. Still, reading above 50 indicates growth in economic activity of this region, while figure below it points on slump. Analysts confirm that strong labour market, rising orders and sales and sustainable economic recovery increase inventories, supporting advance of activity in the future. Some of them mention strong Boeing orders in recent months, which could raise volatility of the PMI as well, taking into account that the aircraft manufacturer has strong presence in the Midwest.
Alongside with that, consumer sentiment in the world's biggest economy deteriorated to the lowest level since June, as people became more critical on assessment of current job market in the country. Respective index from the Conference Board plummeted to 86 points in September, losing ground from a 93.4 mark back in August. Experts, in turn, predicted only a slight decrease to 92.5 points. The indicator is calculated by surveying 5,000 households across the U.S. about present economic situation. It used to be the major indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of American economy.
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