- Nick Kounis, head of macro research at ABN Amro Bank NV
The 18-nation bloc started this year with a bunch of mixed data as unemployment rate remained at a record high, while retail sales rebounded strongly, suggesting the region has stabilized; however, it is too early to speak about robust growth.
The Euro turned lower on Wednesday, following a report from the Eurostat that showed the jobless rate remained at 12.1% in November unchanged from the previous month. The rate ticked down by 0.1% in October, forcing analysts to upgrade their outlooks on the Eurozone; however, the improvement does not say much as the number of unemployed people still above the 11.7% seen in October 2012. As to the jobless rate in a broader European Union, it has inched higher by 0.1% from the same month a year earlier, hitting 10.9%. It is hard to evaluate the progress in the labour market, as compared to 2012, unemployment rose in 14 EU countries, while decreasing in 14 others member states.
Across the Eurozone, sales at retailers soared 1.4% in November, expanding at the fastest pace in 12 years. The increase was mostly led by Portugal, which saw a 3.1% growth. The ECB is expected to keep its key refinancing rate unchanged at 0.25% through to 2015; however, in case increased consumer spending is not translating into growing inflation, Mario Draghi may be forced to pull the trigger once again.
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