- Nick Kounis, head of macro research at ABN Amro Bank NV
The 17-nation bloc's economy probably edged back to growth in the last quarter, ending the longest recession since the creation of the single currency 14 years ago. This tentative view is likely to harden into conventional wisdom on Wednesday, August 14, when the European statistical office will unveil the Q2 GDP data. Gross domestic product in the Eurozone is widely expected to grow 0.2% in the three months through June, after contracting for the last six quarter. Analysts say that Europe's powerhouse, Germany, probably grew about 0.75%, exceeding projections for a 0.6% growth. A whole year of almost calm financial markets, a set of austerity measures in Spain and Italy as well as acceleration in the world's largest economy all have helped the Euro area start to recover. It was clear that a rebound in manufacturing sector and other parts of the economy are meaning that things would no longer get any worse economically and there would be a modicum of economic revival. Nonetheless, the severe recession has left the region with youth unemployment of 24%, while parts of southern Europe still remain mired in a slump.
On Monday, the National Statistical Service of Greece said the Greek economy shrank less in the second quarter, with GDP falling 4.6% in Q2, after falling 5.6% in the first three months of this year. Analysts, however, expected a 4.9% drop.
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