Key Findings: ECB May 2026 Consumer Survey
- Inflation is Cooling: While past-year inflation felt steady at 4.0%, expectations for the next 12 months dropped from 4.0% to 3.5%. Long-term expectations sit at 2.9% (3 years ahead) and 2.4% (5 years ahead).
- Earning More, Spending Less: Expected income growth rose slightly to 1.0%, yet consumers plan to rein in budgets, dropping their spending growth expectations from 4.3% to 3.8%.
- Milder Recession, Stable Jobs: The economic outlook is less pessimistic, with growth expectations improving from -2.2% to -1.7%. Anticipated unemployment ticked up to 11.3% (from a perceived 10.7%), signaling a "broadly stable" labor market.
- Housing & Credit: Expected home price growth dipped to 3.6%, while mortgage rates held steady at 4.9%. Following the tightest credit access since early 2024, fewer households now expect lending conditions to worsen
- Income Gap: Lower-income households face higher economic anxiety. Compared to wealthier peers, they perceive higher inflation, expect steeper home prices/mortgage rates, and anticipate much higher unemployment (13.7% vs. 9.5%).
- Age Gap: Younger consumers (ages 18–34) maintain consistently lower inflation perceptions and future expectations than older demographics.