© Victoria Redwood
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For the City it could mean a loss of some businesses to Europe, if we do leave the EU. The UK's companies would potentially lose the so-called passporting rights, which now allow financial institutions in the UK operate very freely in the rest of the European Union.
However, over the long term that could potentially imply greater opportunities for the City to trade with other parts of the world and the main areas of growth in financial services demand in the future, which is probably going to lie in emerging markets. Thus, the City might be freer to negotiate agreements with these areas instead.
To my mind, the City is perhaps one of the parts of the UK economy that would be potentially worst affected by the ‘Brexit'. Even so, we do not suppose it would be a big problem for the City over the longer term, as it has various advantages other than access to the EU.
To your mind, how likely a ‘Brexit' is?
At the current moment, if we take into account data that gathers different experts' odds and opinions, I would suggest that there is around 40% chance of ‘Brexit' happening.