© Edgar Walk
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Yes, I expect the German economy to expand steadily for the next few years. I believe that we will continue to see robust growth of export industry. Moreover, I am anticipating that the residential investment and consumption spending will continue to provide significant contributions to growth.
Recently Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble admitted that Greece will need a third bailout. Since Greece's two bailouts are highly unpopular in Germany, do you think that the bailout talks may impact Angela Merkel's chances of winning?
At the moment I do not see that having a meaningful impact but it is clear that opposition, the Social Democrats, will raise this topic over the next few weeks before the election in September. Thus, it could become a very topical issue. However, currently I think the CDU will try to keep Greece out of discussion.
If Angela Merkel wins the elections, how do you think she will handle the bailout overhauls of the three countries- Greece, Portugal and Ireland, or how she might handle future rescue programmes?
The sovereign debt crisis has shown that any country in crisis will get support from the other European countries. No one will be allowed to fail. I expect that nothing will change after the German election in this respect. Moreover, I expect that there will be some additional help for these countries in the sense that the maturity of the official loans will be lengthened and interest rates will be reduced. This is nothing else than a haircut of official loans, through the backdoor because the net present value of the loans will be reduced. Furthermore, if there are any tensions concerning the European banking sector in the future, I believe that bond holders will be bailed in to a much greater extent than in the past. Currently, I see Cyprus still as a special case and do not expect that deposit holders will be bailed in to any extent. Thus, if the bail-in of bond holders is not enough, the ESM will provide the necessary resources for the bail-out of banks.