I’ve written a lot about Carry, and its uses in trading FX recently. In this article, I will look at how most efficiently to structure a carry portfolio across the varying risk levels. A simple re-cap of what FX carry is, is that you buy high yielding currencies, while simultaneously selling low yield currencies, in order to receive the difference in interest. The idea behind this comes from interest rate parity pricing of forward FX contracts (I went into detail here), but basically, the future value of a currency should discount any interest rate difference. I.e. at its heart, when you buy a higher yielding currency, the main objective is not that the currency increases in value, just that it stays above the forward value of the currency so that you gain Carry. However these particulars are not too important, what is important is how we structure a portfolio to suit our needs most effectively.
As discussed previously, the generic go to carry portfolio for G10, is buying the top 3 yielding currencies, whilst simultaneously selling an equal amount of the 3 lowest yielding currencies.
As a reference point, here is a table of 2Y swap rates for the currencies with…