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INTRODUCTION

The FOMC Statement is a highly anticipated event, more so as the FED is nearing it's planned interest rate hike.

A lot of care is put into the exact wording used in the statement, so as not to cause excess volatility in the markets, or misleading information.

Trading this risk event is like playing a game of Poker with the FED, carefully analyzing every word trying to interpret the underlying message. Essentially trying to figure out the FED's cards, to determine when to go all in!
(figuratively speaking).

SUMMARY


This article is my personal interpretation of the FED Statement of Dec. Therefore the view here may differ from other publications on the web, as the statement does carry a larger degree of vagueness.

The objective of the article, is to provide trader's that are new to the fundamental side of trading, a view of how a press conference can be interpreted, and subsequently trade the obtained information.

Figure 1 - USDJPY 5M - Showing a bullish effect prior to, during and post FOMC

To sum up the statement in one sentence, the FED see's the economy continue to improve. Everything remains inline to raise interest rates as planned. This will likely o
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Success in trading depends of many factors but one of the most importants is the ability of each trader to maintain calm during and after a cycle of negative operations. An intelligent handling of Risk help us to keep both confident and motivated even in the middle of a cycle of negative operations.The purpose of this article is to transmit to the reader the importance of working with a correct relation risk/profit to maintain consistence in time.

How much to risk?

Build a strategy of positive mathematic expectation to obtain a high rent ability is important but the main goal of the risk handling is to ensure survival.

A good number of tests by economists of worldwide prestige have proved that the maximum quantity that a trader can risk in an isolated trade without damaging the expectations in a long term is of 2% of the initial capital. That is to say that if you have $ 10.000 in your trading account, you can not risk more than $200 in only one operation.

It is also proved that all the relations risk/profit where the risk is higher than the benefit, can work for some time but in the long run will lead the trading account to bankruptcy.

The following chart is an example of how…
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Introduction
The term “exotic currency pairs” speaks for itself, pointing to the minor nature of these instruments. Most often, traders prefer to trade major currency pairs and pairs of cross-rates on Forex. Group of exotic currency pairs at the same time is deprived of attention. Although the group exotic are financial instruments with non-standard characteristics, but they have a huge potential, which can be confirmed by experienced analysts.

Trends of exotic currency pairs trade
The group consists of exotic currency pairs, in which the dollar or the euro currency is connected with developing countries currency. The most liquid ones are: US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD / SEK), US dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD / NOK), the US dollar / South African rand (USD / ZAR), US dollar / Mexican peso (USD / MXN), US dollar / Singapore dollar (USD / SGD). And this is not a complete list of available trading exotic currency unions.
Experts predict a rise in the proportion of exotic, associated with the development of information opportunities for traders. Today trading terminals provide historical data and information on current quotations of currencies in real time. In addition, in the I…
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1.0 Introduction

Bolling Bands are technical trading tool that was invented by John Bollinger in the early 1980s. The main usage of Bollinger Bands is precisely explaining the meaning of the high and low. Defining the prices during the upper bands at a higher rate and low bands at the low ban might help in reaching the methodical interchange choices.His bands explain higher and lower band of the market in relation with values. When trying to interpret the cost of actions, this is very useful. Degree of the alliance, deciding about the objectives for a certain trade, getting into a position to buy and sell the sighs for the currency pair and ability to get a trend streak are some of the key elements of Bollinger Bands.

The Moving Averages that are being used in analyzing the equity trade have the same purpose as the Bollinger Bands. Three lines of moving averages are existent; higher band, lower and the middle. The middle one serves as the starting point of high and low bands. The line that determines volatility is actually the difference of the upper and the lower band with the inner line.

Dukascopy published few articles about Boolinger Bands strategies in the past. I suggest …
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Chart Coupling Plugin
Ranking 9/38
Tool Plugin Chart Chapling
Posted on 14 Dec at 09:31 by MobNaga
*This Articles is a manual of how to use my chart coupling plugin*

Chapling:
All Chart Coupling Plugin can do is one thing, the synchronization of plural charts time.
If you feel troublesome to deal the plural charts at same time, please do try this plugin, this might be can help to reduce your annoying work. This plugin can coupling the several charts on platform, and automatically adjusting their timelines.
E.g. when you slide a chart to left or right, then this plugin automatically slide the rest of all coupling chart to exactly same time position. So you can easy check the moves of more than one chart at same time. And you might be can realize that you has multicore-multithreading brains.

Alright, let's check the sample steps to explain how to using.

Step 1: Download a plugin file.
At first, you have to download a plugin file. File name is Chapling. You can download it on JStore(please search a "Chapling" on there).
Next, after download it, let launched a JForex Platform and attached that file to the plugin tree. Of course, don't forget to activate this plugin.

Step 2:Open two charts.
Next, you have to open two charts on platform. In this sample, I opened a cha…
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Dear Traders,

I haven't been very active in the community recently and today I decided that it is time to begin sharing some of the successful trading strategies I'm using with my first article.

The Bollinger Bands indicator always fascinated me and I've been lucky to meet John Bollinger several times in person during trade shows and seminars. He has a deep knowledge about the markets and is a very funny and humorous guy. If I had to describe him with one word: simply genius! Depending on how old you are and since when you're using computers you probably can imagine how things were when he invented the Bollinger Bands. Some decades ago we had no Excel or sophisticated trading platforms and the process of calculating the bands was a very work intensive task. To simplify things, we can also see the Bollinger Bands as a statistical model with a moving average (middle channel), a line above two standard deviations apart (upper channel) and a line below also two standard deviations apart (lower channel).

There are numerous ways one can use the Bollinger Bands for trading the markets. Today, I like to show you the my Bollinger Band strategy I'm using in trend
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Every investment, even treasury bonds bear some degree of risk. It’s in the nature of investing. But the risk of loss in forex market is maybe among the highest. That’s why if you ever decide to invest in this market you’d better realize the risks connected with it.

On the other hand, benefits and advantages of the forex market are maybe even bigger than its risks.

First of all, it’s the huge leverage opportunity offered by brokers. 1/200 leverage has nearly become an industry standard. Some brokers even offer 1/500 -1/1000 leverage. I agree that, high leverage without the necessary money management skills and strategies, is a very short cut to losing your hard earned cash. On the other hand if risks managed properly it offers people who have little capital, the opportunity to trade thousands of dollars. And minimum lot size is 0.01 lot which is 1000 dollars for USD it is even possible to trade with 10 dollars. But If you had decided to trade copper for example at the Comex futures market the minimum lot size is 12500 pounds of copper which worth roughly 37500 USD nowadays.

Secondly, most brokers compensate themselves for their services only through something called bid – ask s
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Step Back
Ranking 15/38
Well, it's December and we all like to sit down a bit and enjoy a warm cup of tea these days. So I decided to write a few words about success in forex trading and things that are related to that. It's my first article so I expect some feedback from you.

Before I start explaining why it's hard to succeed in forex I must remind you that every trader should see financial trading just like every other type of business. I always looked at different things in a bigger picture, because it helps you understand how stuff work in general. We live in a world where literally everything is about trading. You can buy/sell services, a product, maybe knowledge or your time. Same goes with forex and other forms of trading.

Let me give you an example:

I started a company. First, I buy some basic materials from which I will make a product and then sell it. Then I would want to find a market and get to know it. If my product has a lot of buyers that means a lot of profit. You sure spotted some similarities here that are connected to forex. A currency pair like EUR/USD could be for example HAIRDRESSING EQUIPMENT/SERVICE. So basically you buy the equipment and you have the »material« to work with a…
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Hi guys, I am back in action!!!
As per my previous plan of writing thorough strategies one should adopt in trading which was discussed in my previous article Text Book of Technical Analysis - Index , I am going ahead now after a long gap.

In this month’s article series, I would be elaborating on how to use the PIVOT POINTS as a trading strategy and in this article I will discuss.
  • What are Pivot Points
  • Variants of Pivot Points
  • Limitations of Pivot points
In the succeeding article I will discuss about how to choose entry level, take profit and exit strategy with a lot of live examples with the help of charts and my trades in contest. Now let's unerstand...

What are pivot points


Pivot points are technical analysis indicator are used to identify the trend of the market over different time frames. They are one of the oldest technical tools used by floor traders. It is pretty easy to compute and would give the traders some idea about how the market moves and to determine the reversal of the trend. It’s been calculated using the previous time frame’s OPEN, HIGH, LOW and CLOSE. This was originally used for the intraday trades but may be calculated for 1 minute and upto 1 month too. …
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Q1 2015 Outlook
Ranking 11/38
As we head into 2015, a few themes dominate the FX market and they will have substantial impacts on to currencies

  • Firstly, Oil prices will play a hefty role in determining monetary policy, as well as inflation expectations. So far this year, Oil is down some 36%

  • Secondly, the market is still underpricing US hikes... now we may see a change to the fundamentals, but as it stands the US rate market is still way of the pace of the Fed and Taylor rule estimates Looking at each currency bloc in turn we can see the potential moves.

GBP outlook

Near term risks for GBP are on the downside as remaining bulls capitulate with the weakening inflation picture. The basing of inflation would mark the low in market rate expectations and set the GBP base as well.

A potentially doubly hung parliament adds to well flagged uncertainty around May’s General Election. Investors don’t see any positive outcomes for GBP, with a Labour majority/coalition bad for business and Conservative majority/coalition raising prospects of Brexit.

When we look at risks going forward, the options space is pricing in some interesting moves for next may... if we look back to the scottish referendum it is far less sign…
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Poker is a very interesting game; that involves a lot of strategy and discipline. It teaches you how to calculate the odds of success and loss of a poker hand. When you believe the odds are in your favor, you bet some more and increase the stakes. A round of a poker game starts with a player getting two cards (your hand), every other player on the table also get two cards each. Over time five other cards are revealed on the table; the best combination of a player’s hand and the five cards on the table wins the pot (the reward money after the bet).
This is just a rudimentary description of how poker is played. It is a lot more complex, and has some many variations.

Is the game in any way related to trading the currency markets?

Can we learn a thing or two from the game of cards to make our trading better?

Can any card game strategy be profitable in the currency market?


This article will strive to answer all the above questions, and give a practical insight on how to approach the currency markets from a card player’s perspective.

To answer our first question, the basic similarity between a game of poker and trading the currency market is the uncertainty of the outcome
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October 1.91
Ranking 7/38

Introduction
In this article, we suggest that there is some correlation between the strength of trend and Volume Average Indicators value.
We like a fried potato. But, it is very oily and salty, so we have to consider an appropriate volume, should not overeat it.
In a similarly, in the FX trading, should we have a cautiousness to the volume indicators? we think yes. We suspect that when volume average indicators goes down, then a trend is likely to the end. And we describes that by 2 part in this paper.

First part is abstract free size explanation by standard chart pattern. There is no concrete the numbers as like balance of stop-loss and take-profit. It is very elasticized opinion. So, it is suitable to every chart situations, and also it not suitable to all of that. This is just idea, and very depend on users.

Second part is concrete explanation by the back test result. Strategy which used for this back test has very specific trading rules, so this idea's reproducibility is very high. Everyone can easy check this research whether correct or incorrect in the past and future. However situation is very limited, this research can use only for the restrictive situation which …
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Trading is a stressful job, sometimes even the smartest traders forget the basics.

Most traders who want to be professionals some day, spend a lot of time reading books written by trading legends and listening their interviews.

Last month, I started reading the book: Stock Market Wizards, by Jack D Schwager

This book compiled the Interviews of one of the best traders in the world. While reading, I noticed that even the best traders make the same mistakes that we amateurs make!

I will keep short, so that you can remember the whole article.

1. STAY CALM ALL THE TIME

Staying calm does not mean sitting still, your heart beat should be normal, and thoughts should be not be excitement provoking.

Emotions such as anger and excitement interfere with our brain's ability to think rationally. Hence, such emotions must be avoided on a trading desk.

There are two powerful ways to achieve true calmness in your trading terminal.

First: Decide the loss you are happily willing to take. Then keep your stop losses accordingly.


Second:
Do meditation.

If you don't know him, Ray Dalio is founder of Bridgewater Associates. It is a Hedge fund with 122 Billion under management.

Also avo…
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INTRODUCTION

One aspect that traders should be well versed in, is spotting and trading a reversal pattern. By simple definition a reversal can be a positive or negative change against the prevailing trend. On a price chart, reversals undergo a recognizable change in the price structure. An uptrend, which is a series of higher highs and higher lows, reverses into a downtrend by changing to a series of lower highs and lower lows and a downtrend, which is a series of lower highs and lower lows, reverses into an uptrend by changing to a series of higher highs and higher lows.

In this article the discussion is how to recognise and trade reversals with a particular focus on bearish reversal patterns. The emphasis will be on the five most common chart patterns and explaining how each pattern can be approached, and what traders may want to look for when triggering the trade.

  • Bearish Engulfing Patterns

The bearish engulfing pattern is the simplest pattern to spot. It consists of a small green candlestick with tails followed by a large red candlestick that engulfs the small white one hence the name. Below are illustrations of the patterns.

Fig 1: Bearish engulfing pattern
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2015 Global Fx Outlook
Ranking 1/38


If the main macro theme of 2014 was the broad based dollar strength, the general consensus for 2015 is for further appreciation of the dollar. The implication of a strong dollar, and with the pick up in volatility, have also set in motion other trends, like the bearish commodity trends(see Metals and Oil), the carry trade has died (see AUD/USD and NZD/USD) and last but not least EUR/USD has finally started trading to the downside.

The broad based dollar strength can have a big impact on US economy, like lower inflation and this can be the trigger, next year 2015, for a considerable correction in the equity market but without altering the secular bull trend. I'm making a bold call here that the equity market will have a severe correction in 2015, once we complete a PI cycle from the 2007 high. "PI" the magic number has the following significance:
  • PI=3,141;
  • Multiply (Pi)*1000=3141;
  • 3141 days equal 8.6 year;
  • If you add 8.6 years to the 2007 high it bring us to October 2015 as the next intermediate top.

Because of the dollar's role as the world's primary reserve currency, the impact of the broad based dollar strength can trigger some "consequences" in other part of the world …
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