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Archimedes once said:

"Give me a lever strong, enough, and a prop strong enough, and I can singlehandedly move the world"





"Give me a maximum or a minimum of the year's quarter, and I will tell where the price will go :>"

Me.


In my first Article at this contest, I wrote about determination of a long term trend using larger timeframes, and signals, generated by the larger timeframes.

"Determination of a long term trend" Part 1

I'm sure it was interesting to some of you, but also, I can see the trader's rising interest to Intraday and Intraweek trading.

Intraday and intraweek trading - by saying this, I mean - when the trader is trading during the hours, days or weeks.

In this article I will explain How to Use the signals, provided by the Higher timeframes, to enter the trades on a lower time frames, and much more frequent with better quality.

***A picture Above, reminds you the entry signals, on a Quarter - period charts, that I have talked about in previous article

I would like to recall, that the main task is to find out the entry points on the market. I will show you how to enter the market using a daily charts, where I will demonstrate, that it is not necessary t…
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Introduction
Although it is a matter of taste, I can't feel the truth from some article based on very few past chart. I want to read an article which has something real for improve my trading. So, at first, I try to write a something like that. And I hope that many articles based on long term back test at short period chart will be show up on this contest...
It aside this article's research theme is Simple Volume Average Indicator. Many FX-websites says that "Look the volume". But is it true? Does volume indicator has a something meaning? I can't believe that without any back data. So I did check that with back-test in decade by myself.

Back Test Settings
At first, this chapter explains the strategy which was used for get the default back-test data.

Fig 1: Trading Rule Sample: BUY
Fig 2: Trading Rule Sample: SELL
  • Trading rules of the sample strategy for this research is “MinMaxBoxCounter”.
  • Chart is EUR/USD 5 minutes bar.
  • SL is 0.5% of the close price.
  • TP is 0.1% of the close price.
  • Filter is ALL_FLATS.
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Introduction

This article will serve as a precursor to my next article in the series, where I go into detail describing my Bollinger Band Breakout Strategy. The article aims to provide a good foundation on Bollinger Bands as a technical analysis tool.



Bollinger Bands are named after the creator John Bollinger. As pictured on the right.

He is a technical analyst that developed the tool as a measure of volatility. He has wrtten a book titled "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands" and is considered the foremost expert on the subject.

He also currently runs a website and has a pay service where he analyzes the markets for setups as per different bollinger band strategies he has developed.

Without going into excessive detail on the construction of Bollinger Bands, to briefly illustrate I will provide some examples of different types of setups and information that can be obtained from the bands. The bands themselves are a measure of volatility based on previous price action. They utilize the simple moving average and the amount of data to be measured back is input by the user. The standard settings, and often the default is based on a 20 period Moving average.

I will illustrate some…
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Ecn Vs Market Maker
Ranking 2/14
ECN Market Maker spread
Posted on 9 Oct at 15:22 by DominguezV
By now, most of us already know the main differences between an ECN Broker (Electronic Communications Networks) and a Market Maker. In this article, I am giving some comments on the most outstanding ones, but, the real purpose of my essay is not just to emphasize such differences -- you can easily find this information on trading forums, even on brokers's websites -- , but is to develope how working with ECN in stead of with Market Maker could economically benefit any trader, either daytrader or swingtrader. I did not find any article which help to find the best solution to the matter, most of them conclude with afirmations as: in order to work on the intraday charts in minutes is essential to work with an ECN, but for graphics swing trading hours is not as important to work with an ECN. The purpose of this article is to clear your doubts. A Market Maker broker uses a technology which provides to its customers demand and supply prices of the different currency crosses, as consideration for each forex transaction. Market Maker must cover the operation in the market with their own capital. If market is covered, the benefits of the market maker is the spread, but they also may decide …
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All traders have heard the mantra “Cut your losses short and let your winners run but many don’t know how to do this effectively. In this article I’m going to share a great way to ensure that you stay in your profitable trades for as long as possible.

When considering any trade, most new traders focus on getting the right entry and spend less time thinking about how they will exit a trade, especially a profitable one. As a supply and demand I trader, I enter trades based on the levels I think will hold; shorts from supply and longs from demand.

Common advice is that you should exit at the nearest opposing level which for a short trade would be a demand level and for a long trade would be supply. The thing is, sometimes price goes straight through the nearest opposing level and on to the next one. It can sometimes go further. If you always exit at the closest opposing level then you are likely to miss out on some easy pips. The same is true for long trades if you exit at the nearest supply level.

One way to make sure you stay in trades for as long as possible is to monitor price action when it arrives at the opposing level. If you see signs that price will reverse then exit and i…
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Introduction
This article consists of two separate sections.
-The first section shows how to apply the tools of the trading platform for further research to preserve the historical data in the Office package Excel.
-The second section of the example of daily data the EURUSD shows one of the relatively simple methods of determining the trend line using the package Excel.

Section 1. Saving quotes data in Excel

Choosing from the menu «Tools» and sub «Historical Data Manager» are able to store data for quotations for a certain period in the files of type * .CSV or * .HST (see next image).



We define the fields for data selection:
- The currency pair (note the selected currency pair EURUSD);
- Specify the date range of data output;
- To save in a format readable by Excel format *.CVS;
- The date format to choose for their future goals (I did not change);
- Choose the price Bid or Ask (I left Bid);
- Indicates the type of data (minutes, hours, day ...) choose Days and the next 1Day;
- Essentially specify the delimiter data "; . "
- To select the direction to save data to your computer using the «Browse». When you are ready to save the press «Start».
If …
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Archimedes once said:

"Give me a lever strong, enough, and a prop strong enough, and I can singlehandedly move the world"




"Give me a maximum or a minimum of the year's quarter, and I will tell where the price will go :>"

Me.


The method, I'm going to talk here about, is a Determination of a Long-term Trend.

In my opinion, prior to a good move in one direction, the market is getting ready for 3-15 months. Of course 15 months, is too much, that's why in this article, I will describe a 3 months approach.

"Determination of a Long-term Trend"

Before the beginning, I would like to thank a Dukascopy company, for the given ability of quarter time frame charts drawing.

The main points:
  1. We're looking for a maximum and minimum levels of previous quarter.
  2. After, the minimum and maximum has been formed, the price is not testing the level before a breakdown.
  3. Raising power of trend, after the level is broken.

Picture1:

Picture 2 (T/F 1Month):

As you can see on picture 2, the signal for a long-term trend determination has been formed in may 2014.
For a signal confirmation we have had to wait for a quarter closure.

Picture 3:

As you can see, the Quarter 4 of 2012 and the Qua…
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Not more than 3 months ago I've been writing an article about how you can trade the 4:00PM London Fix, giving out an easy step by step guide on how to profit from the price action around that time. You can read more about it here: London Fix Strategy

In this article we're going to make one step further and automatize the whole process by using Dukascopy Visual JForex. This will be one of those strategy that will require no indicators and I'm going to use some of the blocks that I've already been using them in my previous article, and you should be already familiarized with them. I like to keep things simple so in this regard even if you don't have any programming skills whatsoever you will be able to understand the whole process.

Lets proceed first by giving a short summary of our strategy:
  1. Currency pair: GBPUSD;
  2. Time Frame: 1h;
  3. Target= 16 pips. Since beginning of the year the average pips volatility at 4:00PM was around 16.6 pips (see Figure 1);
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The Dukascopy Forex Community (DFC) is one of the few forums where thousands of Dollars in cash prizes are available for grabs on a monthly basis in several contests. Some of the popular contests are:

Trader contest : $16,000 monthly prize pool
Strategy contest: $15,000 monthly prize pool
Article contest: $15, 000 monthly prize pool (Depending on the number of monthly participants)

From the above listed contests alone, over $45,000 is available to be won every month by the community members.
As good as it sounds, winning these cash prizes are not so easy. For a member to be awarded any prize, he or she has to excel in the selected contest and show great skill. Each contest also has its own rules and guidelines, which must be strictly adhered to.

One community member who is worthy of note, and who has shown consistency with winning cash prizes monthly is the community member called CD1V1. His name is actually Christopher, and he hails from Nigeria.

Trader CD1V1 has been a member of the Dukascopy Forex Community since November 2013. He has been actively participating the Strategy contest since he joined the community, but he has not been able to win any cash prize from that con…
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Introduction

Ever since hitting the highs in September 2011 gold has been on a downward spiral. Now with the price threatening to break $1,200/oz barrier. The question now is, where is the precious metal heading? Fig 1 below is the weekly chart of gold from 2010 to date.


Fig 1: 1-week Chart of XAUUSD

From the beginning of 2010 into 2011 the price on Gold was on an upward trajectory before peaking on the 5th of September 2011 at a price of $1920.66/oz. Afterward it began retreating and has since reached a low price of $1,179.50/oz on the 14th of June 2013.

This article attempts to look at the fundamental and technical aspects affecting the price of gold


Production Cost


The production cost of gold varies from company to company depending on the type of mining, the level of technology used and the part of the world where the mining takes place. Fig 2 below shows how the various standards used to measure the production cost of gold related to the actual price of gold.

Fig 2: Evolution of gold cost standard

In 2012, the senior gold companies worked with the World Gold Council to come up with a standard called the all-in sustaining costs (AISC) and has been widely …
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Hey SVA, I know what you did last decade…
Hi traders, do you check the Simple Volume Average-Indicator's value?
Just out of curiosity, I did researched performance of the SVA-indicator in the last 10 years. In this report, I will show you the truth of the SVA.

Back Test Settings.
  • Trading rules of the sample strategy for this research is “MinMaxBoxCounter”.
  • Chart is EUR/USD 5 minutes bar.
  • SL is 0.5% of the close price.
  • TP is 0.1% of the close price.
  • Filter is ALL_FLATS.
  • When close price was highest value of the last 26 bars it try to take a SHORT position. And, bar A is the bar which is 26 bar before. Bar B is the bar which has a second highest close price. Bar C is the bar which has a lowest close price. Bar D is the bar which has a highest close price.
  • When close price was lowest value of the last 26 bars it try to take a LONG position. And, bar A is the bar which is 26 bar before. Bar B is the bar which has a second lowest close price. Bar C is the bar which has a highest close price. Bar D is the bar which has lowest close price.
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Abstract


The major macroeconomic factors, defining currency exchange rate are discussed. Correlation between oil prices and current account balance for Canada is outlined. An“abnormal” state of futures market, known as “backwardation”, is described. An indispensable feature, signifying minimum in oil prices, is proposed as a corollary. Further dynamics of the Canadian dollar is discussed.

It is ubiquitously acknowledged that the main driving forces behind currency dynamics, absent the Central Bank interventions, are interest rates spreads as well as current account and capital account balances. Provided that the former parameter is negligibly small or kept unchanged for long period of time, the importance of the latter parameters increases.


When commodity price holds the key to currency exchange rate


Canada is a perfect case of a country that developed commodity oriented economy. Advantages as well as drawbacks of so lopsided economical structure are simple to grasp – current account as well as capital account balances (see fig. 1 and fig. 2) become prone to the vicissitudes of world demand for a certain raw material. This high demand might be invoked by legitimate gr…
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Introduction :

Understanding the market we trade is vital.

In this Article, I would like to take a brief overview of the current World Economic Climate, together with factors that influence. Should it be enjoyed, I will continue to delve into the statistics, to offer a complete understanding, at the end.

Key To Charts :

These charts are prepared for ease of reference. In all cases, I have calculated the World average (from the data available). White is favourable. Colour is above the average to a maximum of double. Grey proceeds thereafter and black indicates that data was not available from my reliable sources.

In the case of Food Inflation and DEBT/GDP, I have set the roof for colour at a maximum of an additional 50% of the World average.

The statistical data is included for ease of reference.

Overview :

At a glance, S & P Ratings offer a picturesque view of the current economic climate. It is, however, a stagnant picture.

Interest Rates are vital to analyzing the future potential of a country and its economy and currency. Higher Interest Rates attract investors, whilst lower Interest Rates do not. For traders, the difference between two Interest Rates offers a …
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Myself Vision
Ranking 17/25
trader technical analiz trading
Posted on 22 Sep at 14:09 by jeisson
Forex market is an integral part of the institute of printing money and the biggest one is the Federal Reserve. It's not a secret that Fed is a private organization with license to issuance of money. So, government participation in managment of Fed business is a myth. Any banking rates, QE are a part of the game that has a name of the modern money mechanics. Generally speaking each trader should understand the lords wishes of Fed, if trader wants to be successful. Mathematical method gives some opportunity for every trader to earn money.
I guess that news trading is not a good direction, if you have some desire to make money. Market behavior has a different ways every time during the same news publishing. It has been checked many times in my trading practice, so I think that only the technical analiz has a future in the trading.
Each trader should consider actions of every large institute which is controlling money printing, such as ECB or banks of other countries like bank of England or bank of Australia. It does do trader to be ready for fast and dramatic moves of currency pair.
I won't write article with economics concepts like bonds, treasures, refinancing rate and other, I th…
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FOMC fed USD interest rates
Posted on 16 Sep at 14:58 by AdrianWS
As we all know, the US economy is performing well to all accounts. And as such, the FOMC are going to be considering raising interest rates in the not-too-distant future. Right now, as I type, the futures market for the Federal funds rate sees the first hike at some date between Early June and September.


So that puts us roughly 9 months from the first rate hike from the Fed. The 1st in many, many years. Many junior traders and investment managers who started their career in 2007, have never seen a Fed hike - and these are the people who will now be managing directors or Portfolio managers at sizeable hedge funds. While looking at historical charts of how various assets respond to hikes is one thing, actually trading it is another. Typically a Fixed income manager will look to buy USD-denominated, short duration bonds during a hiking cycle, so as to protect themselves from the MTM impact of higher rates.

In FX, typically higher US rates act in multiple ways to benefit the USD;
  1. Higher interest rates serve to decrease (in theory) inflation, and as such, real interest rates rise leading to a high USD
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