- SWFX traders are 51% bullish
- 54% of pending orders are to buy the metal
- The bullion opened at 1,280.35
- Upcoming Events: US Revised Nonfarm Productivity; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
After the fall down to the 1,260 mark the yellow metal found support and skyrocketed, as on Monday morning the commodity traded above the 1,280 mark. Due to that and other minor facts, it could be observed that the yellow metal's price is most likely going to surge above the 1,285 level.
US companies created less new positions than expected last month, whereas the jobless rate dropped unexpectedly. The US Department of Labour reported on Friday that the US private sector added 138K new jobs to the economy in May, following the preceding month's downwardly revised reading of 174K and falling behind expectations for a 181K gain, while the ADP Report showed Thursday that private payrolls rose 253K in May. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly to 4.3% during the same month, while analysts expected the rate to remain unchanged at 4.4% last month. The jobless rate fall was mainly driven by the nation's drop in the labour force participation rate to 62.7%, the lowest since May 2001.
Minor US data
On Monday there will be no notable enough fundamental data releases, which could be covered by the Dukascopy Research team. However, there will be two data releases, which will give a slight insight into the general state of the US economy. At 12:30 GMT the Revised Nonfarm Productivity will be out. Later, at 14:00 GMT the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and the US Factory orders date sets will be out.
XAU/USD finds support and surges
The yellow metal traded above a significant level of support on Monday morning, as the commodity price was located above the 1,280 level. Due to the fact that the bullion could count on the support of the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1,278.96 mark, a hypothesis of a continuation of the surge was made. The yellow metal's price is most likely going to surge up to the newly calculated weekly R1, which is located at the 1,286.87 level. Moreover, the commodity faces no other resistance levels up to that mark, as even the upper Bollinger band is located above the weekly level of significance. On the other hand a decline might occur, in which case the metal will search for support in the weekly PP at 1,273.06.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart reveals that the yellow metal is continuing on its path higher in accordance with the previously established long term pattern. It is highly possible that in the upcoming weeks the bullion's price will be above the 1,300 level.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain dominant
SWFX traders have decreased their bullish sentiment, as 51% of open positions are long. In addition, 53% of set up orders are to buy the metal—a slight decrease from 57% on Friday.
OANDA Gold traders have decreased their bullish outlook, as open positions are 58.97% long on Monday, compared to 65.22% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank are almost neutral, as only 49.14% of open positions are long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being near 1,350 in September
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between May 5 and June 5 expect, on average, to see the metal just below 1,350 in September. Generally, 43% of participants believe the price will be above 1,350 in ninety days. Meanwhile, 34% of those surveyed reckon the metal will trade in the range between 1,250 and 1,350 over the next three months.