- SWFX traders are 52% bearish
- 66% of pending orders are to buy the metal
- The bullion opened at 1,267.54
- Upcoming Events: ECB President Draghi's Speech
The yellow metal continues to pound on the resistance put up by the monthly PP. Although, market participants are speculating that the level of significance should be broken soon, and the bullion will reach for new heights. Meanwhile, it can be observed on the hourly charts that the commodity price would surge to the weekly R1 at 1,275.49 in the case of breaking the monthly PP. However, the monthly resistance is about to become obsolete in less than 48 hours.
The US economy expanded at a stronger-than-initially expected pace in the March quarter; however, an economic slowdown remained on the table in the second quarter. The Commerce Department reported on Friday that Q1 GDP growth came in at a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 1.2%, compared to an originally reported pace of 0.7%. Meanwhile, analysts expected the economy to expand 0.9% in the reported quarter. However, that was the worst performance over the past 12 months.
Loads of minor data releases
During the next 24 hours there will be a lot of various data sets released. However, it is highly unlikely that any of them will create notable volatility. First of all at 12:30 GMT the US Core PCE Price Index and US Personal Spending data will be published. The most important of the US data sets will be the CB Consumer Confidence, which will be out at 14:00 GMT.
Gold remains below 1,270 mark
On Tuesday morning the yellow metal remained near previous sessions levels. Although it was expected that the commodity price will decline as low as the weekly PP at the 1,261.80 level, the bullion has continued to pound the resistance of the monthly PP at 1,269.77 for more than the last 24 hours. It is most likely that a fundamental event will set the short term direction of the bullion. It is either going to retreat to the weekly PP or break the monthly resistance and surge. In the case of a surge the metal's price is most likely going to jump to the weekly R1 at 1,275.49, which marks the beginning of a notable resistance cluster.
Daily chart
The hourly chart shows that the metal has already once managed to pierce the resistance. It jumped above the monthly PP and retreated in two hours. It is most likely that the commodity price will pass the resistance due to additional factors. First of all, the Bollinger bands can be clearly observed in providing support to the metal. Secondly, the 55-hour SMA is approaching the bullion, as it was located above the 1,265 level on Tuesday morning.
Hourly chart
Bulls establish dominance
SWFX traders remain almost neutral, as 52% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, 66% of pending commands are set to buy the metal.
OANDA Gold traders remain bullish, as open positions are 65.05% long on Tuesday, compared to 67.09% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank are once more almost neutral, as 52.88% of open positions are long, compared to 55.79% positions on Monday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being near 1,350 in late August
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between April 30 and May 30 expect, on average, to see the metal just below 1,350 by September. Generally, 45% (-1%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,350 in ninety days. Meanwhile, 40% (+2%) of those surveyed reckon the metal will trade in the range between 1,200 and 1,350 over the next three months.