- SWFX traders are 51% bearish
- 68% of pending commands are to buy the metal
- The bullion opened at 1,223.46
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Upcoming Events: US JOLTS Job Openings; US Mortgage Delinquencies; FOMC Member Kaplan's Speech
The bullion was regaining its previous losses on Monday morning. However the surge seemed to be unsustainable. That was because the surge was caused by the buying of the bullion in the aftermath of the French Presidential Election. Although, as Macron won, no fundamental large changes are expected in the financial markets. No run to safety or a risk on sentiment was induced.
The US unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly last month, as companies created more jobs than expected. The Department of Labour reported that US firms added 211K jobs to the economy in April, following the preceding month's revised down increase of 79K jobs and surpassing analysts' expectations for a 194K gain. Data also showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, down from March's 4.5%, whereas markets anticipated an acceleration to 4.6%.
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Upcoming events: Minor US data
In the second part of the day some volatility might be induced in the financial markets by medium impact graded US events. At 14:00 GMT the JOLTS Job Openings data will be published. At 20:15 GMT FOMC Member Kaplan is set to give another speech. In addition, starting from today until the 12th of May the US Mortgage Delinquencies data is set to be released. It is a data release without a set time.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
Gold recovers on Monday
After a low opening and touching the 1,221.50 level on Monday morning the yellow metal regained its losses in the early hours of the day's trading session. However, the bullion is still likely to continue the retreat, as the Macron victory in the French Presidential Election is seen as a sign of minor changes in the fundamentals in the financial markets, which could affect the price of the yellow metal. Due to that reason the commodity price might retreat down to the next support cluster, which begins just below the 1,220 mark.
Daily chart
It seems that the cutting of short positions occurred just after the opening, as in the following two hours the yellow metal jumped to 1,235 level. From there it began a decline, which continues. Meanwhile, the recent fluctuations have been consistent with the channel down pattern, which is clearly aimed at the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,219.20.Hourly chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Bulls show dominance
Traders are neutral bearish, as 51% of open positions are short. However, 68% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.
OANDA Gold traders have increased their bullish position amount, as open positions are 69.78% long on Monday, compared to 66.85% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank have done the same, as 69.31% of open positions are long, compared to 65.15% positions on Friday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being below 1,350 in early August
© Dukascopy Bank SATraders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between April 8 and May 8 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,350 in early August. Generally, 45% (-2%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,350 in ninety days. Alongside, 33% (-8%) of those surveyed reckon the metal will trade in the range between 1,200 and 1,350 over the next three months.