- SWFX traders are 53% bearish
- 61% of pending commands are to buy the metal
- The bullion opened at 1,264.24
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Upcoming Events: EU CPI Flash Estimate; US Advance GDP; US Chicago PMI; US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment; FOMC Member Brainard's Speech; FOMC Member Harker's Speech
The yellow metal seems not able to pass the weekly S2, which is located at the 1,263.56 level. The reasons for that are various. From a fundamental perspective the markets are expecting the final outcomes of various political events. Meanwhile, from a technical perspective the metal is expecting additional resistance levels, which will push the commodity price through the support level.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped more than experts estimated. In April, it lost 3.8% and reached 120.3, thus, marking the first decline since January. The fall was mainly attributable to the less optimistic view of business conditions and the labour market in the upcoming six months. As a result, the number of respondents, who evaluated business conditions as "good", decreased from 32.4% to 30.2% and the share of those, who assessed the available number of jobs in the market as "plentiful", plunged from 31.8% to 30.8%. In addition, the number of people who evaluated business conditions as "bad" increased slightly from 13.1% to 13.8%.
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Upcoming events: Various data with US GDP on top
Friday is a busy day for macroeconomic data watchers, as there are various interesting data sets scheduled for publication. First of all the EU CPI data will be published at 09:00 GMT. In the second half of the day data from the US will begin to pour in with the most important at the start. US Advance GDP and Employment Cost Index are set to be out at 12:30 GMT. Afterwards, at 13:45 GMT the Chicago PMI will be published. Fifteen minutes later, at 14:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment will be released. Later in the day the member of the FOMC will speak, as Brainard will give a speech at 17:15 GMT, and Harker is set to speak at 18:30 GMT.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains above support
The yellow metal has not moved much since the fall, which was experienced on Tuesday. The commodity price remained above the support provided by the weekly S2 at 1,263.56. It is most likely that the markets are expecting the outcomes of various political situations, which are in the development, before making a decision. In the case of a decline the bullion would fall down to the 1,253 level, where close by starts a strong support cluster. However, if a surge occurs, the cluster near the 1,274 mark is likely to stop it.
Daily chart
The hourly chart shows that there was one attempt to pass the weekly S2, and that failed due to the support provided by the lower Bollinger band. Most recently the bullion's price managed to break the resistance put up by the 20 and 55-hour SMAs, which are located near the 1,265 mark. Due to that fact the metal faced the resistance of the upper Bollinger band near the 1,267 level and the 200-hour SMA at 1,267.95. If these resistances would be passed, the way up to the weekly S1 would be free.Hourly chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Bulls show dominance
SWFX market sentiment remains bearish, as 47% of open positions are short. However, 61% of pending commands are to buy the bullion.
OANDA Gold traders are bullish regarding the metal, as open positions are 59.94% long on Friday, compared to 58.09% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank are also bullish, as 60.93% of open positions are long, compared to 61.13% positions on Thursday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of Gold being above 1,300 by the start of August
© Dukascopy Bank SATraders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between March 28 and April 28 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,300 at the end of July. Generally, 59% (+2%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Alongside, 33% of those surveyed reckon the metal will trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,300 over the next three months.