- The number of buy orders edged up, from 63 to 67%
- SWFX traders' sentiment stays unchanged; the share of longs stands at 55%
- 28% of traders see USD/JPY above 124.5 by June
- The nearest resistance is represented by the weekly R1 at 121.61, while the closest support is now the monthly R1 at 121.07
- Upcoming events: US Crude Oil Inventories, US 10-y Bond Auction, US Bank Stress Test Results, JPY BSI Manufacturing Index, US Core Retail Sales
Job openings rose in January to the highest level since 2001, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of job openings climbed to 5 million, up from 4.88 million openings reported in December. A gradual increase in job listings is reinforcing view of labour-market strength, as payroll growth have helped push the unemployment rate down to the lowest level in almost seven years. US employers added 295,000 jobs in February, while the US jobless rate slid to 5.5%, its lowest reading since May 2008. Payrolls have risen an average 267,000 so far this year after almost 260,000 a month in 2014, the strongest pace of growth since 1999.
Meanwhile, US wholesale inventories surprisingly rose in January, as sales dropped the most since 2009. According to the Commerce Department, wholesale inventories climbed 0.3%, with sales at wholesalers declining 3.1% in January following the 0.9% drop a month earlier. On an annual basis, sales were 1% lower in January of 2015 than they were a year earlier. Inventories are one of the main components of gross domestic product changes. Although having more inventories does positively contribute to GDP, there is also an important flipside - if a lot of unsold goods accumulate in warehouses and on companies shelves, it can result in businesses reducing production.
Andrew Wilkinson, Chief Market Analyst at Interactive Brokers, said that "the Japanese economy probably requires further stimulus from Bank of Japan", adding that the question "whether or not massive quantitative easing at the BoJ is actually working for the domestic economy" remains topical.US Crude Oil Inventories to decline
Today the Energy Information Administration is expected to report a substantial decrease in the US Crude Oil Inventories, from 10.3M to 4.5. Additional USD/JPY-related risk events are represented by the auction of the 10-year Treasuries, US bank stress test results, and Japan's BSI Manufacturing Index.
USD/JPY tests 2014 high
According to Wilkinson, there are signs that "the market is getting back into that mode of expecting further stimulus." As a result, it is reasonable to "expect the Yen to continue weakening into 120s."
USD/JPY came into contact with the last year's high yesterday and then expectedly retreated. The US Dollar declined mildly to 121.11 also amid the US JOLTS Job Openings' failure to meet the expectations. As for today, the technical indicators are giving neutral signals, and the volatility of the price is now limited by 121.83 from above and by 120.67 from below. This means we may see sideways consolidation until the mid-March, when the pair will supposedly meet the major support trend-line and resume its long-term recovery.
Daily chart
USD/JPY keeps trading within the boundaries of the upward channel, initiation of which dates back to the last days of February. At the moment the pair is undergoing a bearish correction, moving away from the 2014 high and the upper trend-line of the pattern. This sell-off may extend down to 120.70.
Hourly chart
Sentiment remains unchanged
SWFX traders' sentiment stays unchanged; the share of longs stands at 55%, just as yesterday. The number of buy orders edged up, from 63 to 67%.
OANDA traders' optimism towards the US Dollar improved, as 59% of participants are long the Greenback. In the meantime, the attitude of the SAXO Bank traders' is different to OANDA's, since 59% of open positions are short and the remaining 41% are long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
28% of traders see USD/JPY above 124.5 by mid-May
The sentiment among FX Community members changed significantly from the previous trading week, as now around 62% of traders suggest the Yen will continue to depreciate versus the Dollar.
Nuonrg, one of the survey participants, reckons that USD/JPY will maintain its bullish impetus, expecting the pair "to break the 120 level" and update the highs. Rokasltu, on the other hand, thinks that the Yen will advance versus the US Dollar. He defended his position by saying that despite the strong US NFP data, the advance was not very substantial compared to the previous rallies after such surprising data. He also mentioned that "the potential for the upside is exhausted, and the pair might retreat during this week."