- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (36% bullish / 64% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0621
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0335
- Upcoming events on March 17: Euro zone CPI (Feb) and Employment Change (Q4), Germany Zew Economic Sentiment (Mar), US Housing Starts (Feb) and Building Permits (Feb)
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German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that Greece's exit from the Euro bloc was still possible, but highlighted that Europe wants provide further aid to Greece. Nevertheless, Schaeuble stressed that the country should help itself as well as fulfil its financial obligations to international creditors. Otherwise, there will be no further payments under the current bailout program, German Finance Minister said.
Meanwhile, more than half of Germans wanted debt-stricken Greece to exit the Euro zone, while 80% thought the country was not acting in a reliable manner in its negotiations with Eurogroup. Only 14% believed the Greek government will actually implement the austerity and reform measures it has pledged to, while 82% doubt it.
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Eurostat to release Euro area final CPI on Tuesday
Tomorrow, Eurostat, the pan-Euro zone statistical agency, is going to release its final reading for inflation in the single currency bloc. Judging from average estimates, an annual decline in prices in February has probably been unchanged from the preliminary result of -0.3%. Besides that, ZEW Economic Institute will publish its monthly index for economic sentiment in Germany which is expected to strengthen further, supporting the case for a rebound of country's economy.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD set to weaken in the long-term
The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD currency pair remains bearish. On January 22, the ECB decided to expand its asset purchases by buying government bonds since March 9. The programme is likely to continue pushing the Euro downwards. Taking into account present divergence of monetary policies between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, as well as the aggregate bearish outlook for the Euro, the pair will be able to reach the parity in the foreseeable future. Moreover, some market participants suggest it may fall further and even trade below the parity in course of next couple of months, especially when the Fed gives more insight on the federal funds rate's increase.Daily chart
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During last day of the previous working week, EUR/USD resumed its bearish trend and lost more than 100 pips during the trading session. Moreover, the common currency made an attempt to cross the 1.05 round mark. However, this level provided the pair with some bullish momentum that is pushing the Euro slightly upwards on Monday morning. Despite that, giving that the closest technical support is located as far as 1.0335 (weekly S1), bears will try to send the pair towards this level in the near-term.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment and pending orders are negative
Additionally, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot have lost around six percentage points from Friday to just 36% this morning. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, a pair's potential rebound can be limited by the weekly PP at 1.0621. On the other hand, a potential downward development of the Euro is considered to be extended down to the weekly S2 at 1.0177.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Feb 16 and Mar 16 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.11 by the end of June. Though the majority of participants, namely 47% of them, believe the exchange rate will even drop below 1.10 in ninety days, with 27% alone seeing it below 1.06. Alongside, 27% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.10 and 1.16 by the end of June of this year.
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