- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (41% bullish / 59% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.1427
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.1366
- Upcoming events on February 20: France, Germany, Eurozone and US Manufacturing PMI (Feb), France and Germany Services PMI (Feb)
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Greece will ask for a six-month extension of its European loan agreement on Thursday, Greek government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis confirmed. The country says an extension is the only option to prevent a possible default and disruptive Grexit. Yanis Varoufakis, Greek Finance Minister, expressed optimism that a deadlock with other Euro zone member states could be broken by the end of the week, saying he hoped Greece's proposal would be accepted.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank agreed to provide extra 3.3 billion euros emergency funds to Greece's struggling banks, despite pressure from Germany that was unwilling to allow any extra funding, as part of efforts to convince Athens to agree to extend its international bailout. The ECB had already increased the amount available to Greek banks to about 65 billion euros last week.
Watch More: Dukascopy TV
Manufacturing and services PMI data to be released on Friday
Friday of this week will be marked by a number of data releases on activity in manufacturing and service industries in different countries. In Europe, the PMI indicators will be published for France and Germany, with all of them expected to improve slightly. Moreover, the same data will be announced for the United States later the same day.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD set to weaken in the long-term
The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD currency pair is remaining bearish. On January 22, the ECB has made a long-awaited decision to expand its asset purchases which will continue pushing the Euro to the downside. Moreover, the lowest point since the year 2003 around 1.1113 has already been hit by EUR/USD cross. Taking into account present monetary conditions and bearish outlook for the Euro, the pair has a chance to go below 1.10 towards the end of the first quarter of this year. Short-term bullish actions may take place, but their impact and size are not expected to be appropriate for the common currency to commence a stable recovery in the long-run. Moreover, some market participants suggest it may fall further and even trade towards the parity in course of this year.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair posted no significant changes during the trading session. The single currency continued to be capped by 20-day SMA at 1.1427; however, this level seems to be weak enough in order to cause a plunge of the pair. Judging from technical indicators, EUR/USD is likely to stay mostly unchanged during Thursday, but in the weekly perspective a decline of the Euro is currently estimated as the most likely scenario.
Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment grows, pending orders remain pessimistic
On the other hand, SWFX pending orders to acquire the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the current market price are negative again, with only 41% of them registered in the morning on Thursday. It proclaims that in case of pair's increase in price, its medium-term gains are likely to be limited by the monthly pivot point at 1.1496.
On the other hand, a potential decline of the Euro is considered to be possibly extended down to the Bollinger band at 1.1289.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to continue growing this week
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Read More: Community Forecasts
geula4x, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the EUR/USD pair seems slightly bullish on the daily chart. Price has tested 1.1100 area and bounced higher, while a recent support has been established around 1.1260 level." He also added that the closest resistance is located 1.1473 and "Let's see if bulls can push higher and break 1.1473 resistance for a move towards 1.1600."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Jan 19 and Feb 19 expect, on average, to see the currency pair just below 1.13 by the end of May. Though the majority of participants, namely 56% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop down even below 1.12 in ninety days, with 30% alone seeing it below 1.08. Alongside, 20% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.14 and 1.20 by the end of May of this year.
© Dukascopy Bank SA