- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- Trader pending orders 53% bullish
- Pair opened Friday's session at 1.1212
- Upcoming Events: US Average Hourly Earnings; US Non-Farm Employment Change; US Unemployment Rate
On Friday morning the EUR/USD currency exchange rate remained in the range of the previous trading session. The pair faces a rather stronger support than resistance, which favours the hypothesis that eventually the Euro will gain ground against the Greenback. However, the pair's future is more likely to be dictated by the released US fundamental data package
US private companies created more than expected jobs last month, official figures showed on Thursday. The ADP National Employment Report revealed that the US private sector added 253K new jobs to the economy in May, compared to the preceding month's downwardly revised gain of 174K positions. Meanwhile, analysts expected private firms to create 181K new jobs during the reported month. The Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said that wage growth would likely accelerate "through the year into 2018" amid the tightening labour market. Strong job creation is expected to comfy the Federal Reserve and force it to raise interest rates further in the upcoming months.
US Employment package
This Friday the markets will watch the fundamental economic calendars at 12:30 GMT. Moreover, the Dukascopy research team will include the coverage of the released data on the bank's online webinar platform. The data package will come from the US, and it will include mostly labour data. It will consist of Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, the Unemployment Rate and the Trade Balance.
EUR/USD remains in previous range
On Friday morning the common European currency traded in the range of the previous trading session against the US Dollar. Namely, the currency exchange rate was located just above the support of the weekly PP, which is located at the 1.1204 level. Meanwhile, it faced the resistance, which kept the pair from surging on Thursday, in the form of the weekly R1 at the 1.1248 mark. From a technical perspective on the daily chart it looks like the pair will break out to the upside. The reason for such a hypothesis is the fact that the weekly PP is supported by the close by located 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1190 level.
Daily chart
The hourly chart reveals that during the last two trading sessions, including Friday's trading session, there is another force propelling the pair higher. Namely, that is the 55-hour SMA, which joined the weekly PP and forced the rate higher at 12:00 GMT on June 1. Since then the SMA has been pushing the rate higher, forcing it already past the resistance of the 20-hour SMA.
Hourly chart
Read More: Technical AnalysisBearish sentiment persists
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 60% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, 53% of pending orders are to buy the Euro.
OANDA traders have almost not changed their opinions since Thursday, as 68.85% of open positions are short on Friday compared to 69.44% previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients are likewise bearish, as 66.65% of open positions are short, compared to 66.77% on Thursday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.11 at the start of September
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 2 and today expect, on average, that the currency pair may trade slightly above 1.11 in on the first days of September. In general, 55% (+1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.10 in the following ninety days, and 43% see it above 1.12.